What is surprising is that the topic of the sharp cooling of the 16-17th century is silent in our historiography. She is almost completely absorbed in the themes of the reigns of Ivan the Terrible and Boris Godunov, the oprichnina and the Time of Troubles. The history of natural disasters can shed light not only on events Russian history 16-17 centuries, but even in our time. There is no doubt that modern climate warming is a natural way out of the Little Ice Age.
THE LITTLE ICE AGE is a period of global cooling that took place on Earth during the 14th-19th centuries. The coldest time is attributed to the middle of the 16th century (in Western Europe - a very severe winter of 1564-1565). When studying the thickness of tree rings from 14 places in the Northern Hemisphere, it is clearly visible that from the beginning of the 16th century to its end, the thickness of tree rings decreased by a whole third!
The main reason for the cold snap is believed to be
1.slowdown of the Gulf Stream, which is the main “supplier” of heat to Europe 2.reduced solar activity. 3. increased volcanic activity. Massive eruptions of ash into the atmosphere, this can lead to global darkening and cooling. 4. stopping the massive burning of forests by the indigenous population of America. Forest burning was the main form of economy in pre-Columbian America. The extinction of the Indians as a result of infections introduced by Europeans led to the cessation of massive annual fires in the Western Hemisphere and a reduction in CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. At the same time, the expansion of American forests led to a sharp expansion of photosynthesis and, accordingly, a decrease in CO2 content in the Earth's atmosphere. To put it simply in simple words, the more forests, the colder it is.
Climate change has led to a sharp decline in harvests. From the 1560s to the end of the century, wheat prices in Europe increased 3-4 times everywhere. Western Europe suffered a series of mass famines. The northern countries suffered more - the Danish settlements in Greenland died out, the population of Iceland decreased by half, in Scandinavia, where there were also crop failures and famine, the population found salvation in sea fishing. Sweden therefore became an outstanding example of the resurgence of piracy, mainly in the Baltic. Norway sent pirates to the North Sea to rob English merchants sailing to Russia and back. At the same time, English corsairs robbed Spanish ships.
Sweden remembered and increased the successes of the Vikings on land, becoming one of the main winners of the Thirty Years' War and seizing huge pieces of the Baltic Sea coast. Frosts destroyed vineyards in England, Poland, and northern Germany. Alpine glaciers began to grow, destroying pastures and villages. Frosts even affected northern Italy, as both Dante and Petrarch wrote about. According to archaeologists, the average height of a mature man in Northern Europe from the 15th-16th centuries to the 17th-18th centuries decreased by almost 4 cm - from 171.4 cm to 167.5 cm. And again began to recover only in the 19th century. The changes that came demanded explanations within the framework of the understanding of the world of that time. As a result, the culprits were found - witches, supposedly influencing the weather with witchcraft. The hunt for them began. Almost invariably, the psychosis of executions coincided with the most difficult years of the Little Ice Age, when people demanded the destruction of witches, considering them the culprits of misfortunes. Let us add that the burning of a witch was usually accompanied by the sale of her property and a celebration with the proceeds, as they would say now, a banquet. Therefore, rich bourgeois women often became targets of persecution.
What have we discovered in the history of that time? If, in response to climate complications, some countries returned to the past - serfdom, piracy, mysticism, then in other countries capitalism won. Acute economic conflicts of the 16th century gave rise to a number of terrible historical figures like Henry VIII (1500-1547), who executed about 72 thousand . person in England, Marie de Medici (1519-1589), Philip II (1556-1598), Elizabeth I Tudor, William of Orange, French Henry IV. And there were more figures on the thrones than ever before who were strange or simply crazy. Of particular note is Emperor Rudolf II (1552-1612), a collector and philanthropist, a fan of alchemy and magic, who loved everything unusual.
Throughout the Little Ice Age, peasant uprisings and riots broke out, the nature of wars changed, and they became more brutal. Some researchers (Margaret Anderson) also associate the settlement of America with the consequences of the Little Ice Age - people traveled for better life from “God-forsaken” Europe. RUSSIA Rus' -Russia was seriously affected by sudden climate change, although the Little Ice Age affected our territory somewhat later than Europe. The most difficult time was the 16th century. Over the course of one century, grain prices in Russia increased approximately eightfold. Historians have noted that unfavorable changes began to come from the North. In 1500-1550, the population in the North-West decreased by 12-17%, in the 50s the Novgorod region suffered greatly, in the first half of the 60s, desolation covered the western counties (Mozhaisk, Volokolamsk), by the 70s the crisis covered central and eastern regions
The years 1548–1550, 1555–1556, 1558, 1560–1561 were difficult for Russia, and 1570–71 were catastrophic. The long period 1587–1591 was difficult. What is characteristic is that these same years are celebrated as stages economic crisis Russia of the 16th century, which caused the largest demographic losses. The consequences of the Little Ice Age are reflected in the chronicles. 1549 - “bread was expensive on the Dvina... and many people died of hunger, 200 and 300 people were put in one pit.” The population decline according to payment records of the 1570-80s was 76.7% around Novgorod, 57.4% around Moscow. The figures of desolation in just two years of the catastrophic year reached 96% in Kolomna, 83:% in Murom, in many places up to 80% of the land was abandoned. The severe crop failure of 1570 was described by the foreign guardsman Heinrich Staden: “There was a great famine then; a man killed a man for a piece of bread.” Following the harvest failure, a plague epidemic followed in 1571. The same Staden wrote: “In addition, Almighty God sent another great pestilence... The plague intensified, and therefore large pits were dug in the field around Moscow, and corpses were dumped there without coffins, 200, 300, 400, 500 pieces per one a bunch. In the Moscow state, special churches were built along the main roads; They prayed daily that God would have mercy and turn the plague away from them.”
The Crimean raid on Moscow in 1571 was also provoked by colossal population losses from famine and plague. The Tatars took advantage of this moment; they did this, as a review of their largest raids shows, often. The troops of Devlet Gerey besieged Moscow several times, starting a severe fire in the city in 1571, which practically destroyed the city. Only the victory in 1572 at the Battle of Molodi saved Russia from enslavement.
Staden, presenting the plan for the conquest of Russia to Rudolf II, described in it the state of Russian cities, forts and churches after the famine - “... up the Volga lies another large settlement called Kholopy, where all year round There was usually bargaining; Turks, Persians, Armenians, Bukharians, Shamakhans, Kizilbashs, Siberians, Nagais, Cherkassy, German and Polish merchants met there. From 70 cities, Russian trading people were assigned to this fair and had to come to it annually. Here the Grand Duke collected large customs revenues from year to year; Now this settlement is completely deserted. Then you can reach the city of Uglich by water; the city is completely empty. Next lies the city of Dmitrov; and this city is also empty... Volok Lamsky is an unprotected city, deserted... In the center of the state, all of them [fortresses] have fallen and become deserted... According to my calculations, in the Russian Land, about 10,000 churches stand empty, maybe even more, but [in any case ] no less: Russian worship is not performed in them. Several thousand churches have [already] rotted..."
Note that these prosperous cities never regained their importance, and Kholopy Posad simply ceased to exist. If we take Staden's words as a plausible estimate, and assume that the parish of one church was 100-200 people, the desolation of 10 thousand churches would mean the disappearance of 1-2 million parishioners, and even more with children. People captured by the famine of 1570 , mostly fled to the south, to the border of the Wild Field, even though it was dangerous because of the Crimeans. Similar processes took place in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth - and there was an outflow of the population to the south and the growth of Cossack communities.
The areas where the starving people fled were also the Trans-Volga region, the Lower Volga, as well. the Yaik and Don rivers - where the Cossack population began to grow rapidly after 1570. In fact, many of IVAN THE TERRIBLE’s actions were largely motivated by the extremely difficult climatic and military situation in which Russia was located. The Oprichnina, introduced by Ivan the Terrible in the winter of 1564-1565, was not only political act, but also an economic invention - more valuable lands were taken into the oprichnina, they were transferred to loyal people. The fight against the boyars (including the confiscation of their wealth, deprivation of their power) was very similar to what happened in Europe. The campaign gave huge booty to Livonia - the Englishman Horsey described it this way: “The wealth taken in money, goods and other treasures and taken out of this country, its cities, as well as from 600 robbed churches, cannot be enumerated.” Gradual movement to the warm south (Kazan and Astrakhan), an increasing restriction of the Crimean Khanate. Spontaneous Cossack colonization was already moving in this direction.
Unusual cold weather became one of the prerequisites for the beginning of the Time of Troubles. The disaster of 1570 was surpassed in 1601-1603. It was the coldest period in 600 recent years. By the way, it was almost certainly associated with the eruption of the Huaynaputina volcano in Peru. In the summer of 1601 it rained continuously, there was no sun, and then frost destroyed all the crops. The crop failure occurred twice more. Three years of crop failures, despite Godunov’s attempts to improve the situation by distributing bread and money, completely demoralized the country. Even the owners of slaves kicked them out because they could not feed them. Moreover, slaves who went on hikes with their owners and knew how to wield weapons. The state had no choice but to provide them with vacation documents issued in the Serf Order. A new wave of fugitives moved south again. How could refugees settle there without equipment, grain, or horses? Many of them took up robbery. The winter of 1656 was so severe that in the southern regions of the Russian kingdom Polish army Two thousand people and a thousand horses died from frost. In the Lower Volga region in the winter of 1778, birds froze in flight and fell dead. During the Russian-Swedish war of 1808-1809. Russian troops crossed the Baltic Sea on ice.
This year the rowan tree has had a great harvest - the branches are breaking. Remember the sign: a lot of rowan - to cold winter. So the hydrometeorological center is afraid that January 2018 will be abnormally cold and will break records from 20 years ago!
In fact, all this has already happened in The Simpsons; nothing can scare the inhabitants of the Earth. Did you know that in addition to the Ice Age 40 thousand years ago, when mammoths became extinct, there were several more Little Ice Ages, one of which ended literally in the century before last? And global warming has already happened. A long time ago, there was no one to record it then, but we can indirectly learn about it from legends and myths. For example, from the labors of Hercules, the myth about the Nemean Lion says that lions were found in Greece around the 3rd century BC. This means the climate was hot enough for this. Likewise, it was hot enough for the ancient Greeks to wear such light clothing - as you can see in the many statues that survive from that era. This warm period was called the “Roman Climatic Optimum” - it lasted from the 3rd century BC to the 5th century AD and contributed to the flourishing of the ancient kingdoms. It was at this time that the Roman Empire significantly expanded its borders.
Immediately after the Roman climatic optimum came the Climatic Pessimum of the early Middle Ages. It became one of the main reasons for the Great Migration of Peoples, including the Huns, who invaded from the East and destroyed Rome in 476 AD. With this event, the era of the Middle Ages began, which have an exact start date - September 4, 476.
It was followed by the Small Climatic Optimum (approximately 10-13 centuries), it is also called the “Medieval Warm Period”. And after it came the Little Ice Age - an era of global cooling for 500 years, from the 14th to the 19th centuries. Its main reason is the freezing of the Gulf Stream, a powerful warm sea current in the Atlantic Ocean, which has a significant impact on the climate of nearby countries. And the reason for the freezing of the Gulf Stream is low solar activity.
Little Ice Age in Europe greatly influenced the course historical events and development of society. Here are some of the examples:
1. The Vikings stopped their raids on European coasts because of ice on the surface of the sea.
2. Due to lack of food, rats and other rodents began to settle closer to people, which led to the Great Plague Epidemic (“Black Death”) of 1347-1348, when a third (!) of the population of Europe died out. Not everything is clear about the phenomenon of the Black Death. On the one hand, it was the result of a sharp cooling, on the other, due to the mass extinction, arable land sharply decreased, forests began to grow - and this delayed the end of the Ice Age for several more centuries.
3. Viticulture ceased in northern Europe and in the cold regions of France and Germany. It's hard to believe, but until about 1312, England and Scotland were competitors with France in wine production. But from then until now, few people even know about English wines.
4. The cold climate pushed the development of science - people, previously accustomed to a stable climate, began to study the patterns and reasons leading to this or that change in the weather.
5. Influence on music. The famous Stradivarius violins were made from tree species that survived a sharp cold snap - products made from their wood had their own special sound due to the peculiar arrangement of annual rings, which is impossible to repeat, because there are no such trees anymore.
6. The Little Ice Age accelerated the development of capitalism. Under the feudal system, the main way to keep warm was firewood, which became less and less as it got colder. New energy sources began to be required - for example, coal. And an established way of delivering it.
7. The cold climate led to long-term crop failures, which led to mass starvation. The famine caused numerous riots and uprisings, which also accelerated the change in the political system.
8. Influence on fashion. If you watch films about the Middle Ages, you will notice how warmly people dressed - a lot of furs, woolen products, fur trims on dresses and suits. And at school you probably learned that the English Lord Chancellor sits on a sack of wool - again, there was a demand for warm clothes and England was the main supplier of wool in Europe.
9. Greenland, whose name was originally translated as “green land” due to its abundant grass cover, froze completely. And to this day, permafrost remains there.
The Little Ice Age in Russia appeared a little later. The 16th century was the hardest. The cold led to the mass extinction of villages, famine and plague. Grain prices have increased 8 (!) times. Almost half a million residents died. These events became one of the causes of the Time of Troubles of the early 17th century.
The Little Ice Age took place during the 14th-19th centuries and is the coldest in terms of average annual temperatures over the past 2 thousand years.
It is divided into 3 stages.
Stage I (conditionally - 14-15 centuries) was associated with a slowdown in the Gulf Stream around 1300. At this time, Europe experienced a real environmental disaster. Rainy summers and harsh winters led to the loss of several crops and the freezing of orchards in England, Scotland, northern France and Germany. Winter frosts began to affect even northern Italy. F. Petrarch and G. Boccaccio recorded that in the 14th century snow often fell in Italy. A direct consequence of the first phase was the massive famine of the first half of the 14th century. Indirectly - the crisis of the feudal economy. In the Russian lands, the first phase made itself felt in the form of a series of “rainy years” in the 14th century.
Medieval legends claim that it was at this time that the mythical islands - the “Island of Maidens” and the “Island of the Seven Cities” - perished from storms in the Atlantic.
On this moment the theory about the influence of the frozen Gulf Stream on the climate of Europe has not been confirmed. Scientists also talk about such factors as low solar activity, as well as volcanic eruptions, that influenced it. There is another theory - quite unusual - that the low life expectancy and even the low height of the inhabitants of the planet (look at the armor in the Hermitage - they are 145-160 cm tall) are associated with the low activity of the Sun.
Beginning around the 1370s, temperatures in Western Europe slowly began to rise, and widespread famine and crop failures ceased. But cold, rainy summers continued throughout the 15th century. Frequent snowfalls and frosts were common even in southern Europe. A slight warming began only in the 1440s, and immediately led to the rise of agriculture. Until about the 16th century, the climate became slightly warmer. However, the temperatures of the Atlantic optimum were not restored.
Stage II (conditionally - 16th century) - temporary increase in temperature. This may have been due to a slight “thawing” of the Gulf Stream. Another explanation is maximum solar activity, which partially compensated for the effect of the Gulf Stream slowing down. However, from about 1560, the temperature began to slowly drop - apparently, solar activity began to decline again.
Stage III (relatively 17th - early 19th centuries) became the coldest period. The freezing of the Gulf Stream coincided with the lowest point after the 5th century. BC e. level of solar activity. In Europe, the average annual temperature has again dropped sharply. Greenland was covered with glaciers and Viking settlements disappeared from it. Even the southern seas froze. We went sledding along the Thames and Danube. The Moscow River has become a platform for fairs. Global temperatures have dropped by 1 - 2 degrees Celsius. The year 1665 turned out to be especially cold. In the winter of 1664/65 in France and Germany, according to contemporaries, birds froze in the air. There was a surge in deaths across Europe, with populations falling by 30% in Estonia and Scotland and 50% in Finland.
Europe experienced a new wave of cooling in the 1740s. During this decade, the leading capitals of Europe - Paris, Vienna, Berlin, London - experienced regular snowstorms and snow drifts. France has experienced snowstorms several times. In Sweden and Germany, according to contemporaries, heavy snowstorms often paralyzed movement. Abnormal frosts were observed in Paris in 1784. Until the end of April the city was in snowdrifts.
“The theory of the Little Ice Age is one of the most powerful arguments in the hands of opponents of the concepts of global warming and the greenhouse effect. They argue that modern warming is a natural release from the Little Ice Age of the 14th to 19th centuries, possibly leading to a restoration of the Atlantic optimum temperatures of the 10th to 13th centuries. In this regard, in their opinion, it is not surprising that at the beginning of the 21st century, average annual temperatures regularly exceed the “climate norm”, because the “climate norms” themselves were written according to the standards of the relatively cold 19th century” (c)
The Little Ice Age is a period of global (relative) cooling that took place on Earth during the 14th-19th centuries. This period is the coldest in terms of average annual temperatures over the past 2 thousand years. The Little Ice Age was preceded by a small climatic optimum (approximately X-XIII centuries) - a period of relatively warm and even weather, mild winters and the absence of severe droughts.
The Little Ice Age can be roughly divided into three phases.
The first phase is the XIV-XV centuries.
Researchers believe that the onset of the Little Ice Age was associated with a slowdown in the Gulf Stream around 1300. In the 1310s, Western Europe, judging by the chronicles, experienced a real environmental catastrophe. After the traditionally warm summer of 1311, four gloomy and rainy summers followed, 1312-1315. Heavy rains and unusually harsh winters led to the destruction of several crops and the freezing of orchards in England, Scotland, northern France and Germany. In Scotland and northern Germany, viticulture declined and wine production ceased. Winter frosts began to affect even northern Italy. F. Petrarch and G. Boccaccio recorded that in the 14th century. snow often fell in Italy. A direct consequence of the first phase was a massive famine in the first half of the 14th century - known in European chronicles as the Great Famine. Indirect - the crisis of the feudal economy, the resumption of corvée and major peasant uprisings in Western Europe. In the Russian lands, the first phase made itself felt in the form of a series of “rainy years” in the 14th century. Medieval legends claim that it was at this time that the mythical islands - the “Island of Maidens” and the “Island of the Seven Cities” - perished from storms in the Atlantic.
Beginning around the 1370s, temperatures in Western Europe slowly began to rise, and widespread famine and crop failures ceased. However, cold, rainy summers were common throughout the 15th century. In winter, snowfalls and frosts were often observed in southern Europe. Relative warming began only in the 1440s, and it immediately led to the rise of agriculture. However, the temperatures of the previous climatic optimum were not restored. For Western and Central Europe, snowy winters became common, and the period of “golden autumn” began in September (see the Magnificent Book of Hours of the Duke of Berry - one of the masterpieces of book miniatures of the late Middle Ages).
The influence of the Little Ice Age was significant on North America. The east coast of America was extremely cold, while the central and western parts of what is now the United States became so dry that the Midwest became a region of dust storms; mountain forests were completely burned out. Glaciers began to advance in Greenland, the summer thawing of the soil became increasingly short-lived, and by the end of the century permafrost was firmly established here. The amount of ice in the northern seas increased, and attempts made in subsequent centuries to reach Greenland usually ended in failure. Since the end of the 15th century, the advance of glaciers began in many mountainous countries and polar regions.
Miniature of the “Magnificent Book of Hours of the Duke of Berry” 1409-1416.
The second phase, conventionally the 16th century, was marked by a temporary increase in temperature. Perhaps this was due to some acceleration of the Gulf Stream. Another explanation for the “interglacial” phase of the 16th century is maximum solar activity, which partially extinguished the negative effect of the slowdown of the Gulf Stream. In Europe, an increase in average annual temperatures was again recorded, although the level of the previous climatic optimum was not reached. Some chronicles even mention the facts of “snowless winters” mid-16th century century. However, from around 1560 the temperature began to slowly decrease. Apparently, this was due to the beginning of a decrease in solar activity. On February 19, 1600, the Huaynaputina volcano (Peru) erupted, the strongest in the history of South America. It is believed that this eruption was responsible for the great climatic changes at the beginning of the 17th century.
The Frozen Thames, Abraham Hondius (1677)
The third phase was the coldest period of the Little Ice Age. The reduced activity of the Gulf Stream coincided with the lowest activity after the 5th century. BC e. level of solar activity. After the relatively warm 16th century, the average annual temperature in Europe dropped sharply. Greenland - the “Green Land” - was covered with glaciers, and Viking settlements disappeared from the island. Even the southern seas froze. We went sledding along the Thames and Danube. The Moscow River was a reliable platform for fairs for six months. Global temperatures dropped by 1-2 degrees Celsius.
In the south of Europe, severe and long winters often recurred; in 1621-1669 the Bosporus Strait froze, and in the winter of 1708-1709 the Adriatic Sea froze off the coast. In the winter of 1620-1621, snow of “unheard-of depth” fell in Padua (Italy). The year 1665 turned out to be especially cold. In the winter of 1664-1665 in France and Germany, according to contemporaries, birds froze in the air. Across Europe there was a surge in deaths. Europe experienced a new wave of cooling in the 1740s. During this decade, the leading capitals of Europe - Paris, Vienna, Berlin, London - experienced regular snowstorms and snow drifts. Snowstorms have been observed several times in France. In Sweden and Germany, according to contemporaries, strong snowstorms often covered roads. Abnormal frosts were observed in Paris in 1784. Until the end of April, the city was under stable snow and ice cover. Temperatures ranged from −7 to −10 °C.
In Russia, the Little Ice Age was marked, in particular, by exceptionally cold summers in 1601, 1602 and 1604, when frosts struck in July - August and snow fell in early autumn. Unusual cold weather led to crop failure and famine, and as a result, according to some researchers, became one of the prerequisites for the beginning of the Time of Troubles. The winter of 1656 was so severe that when the Polish army entered the southern regions of the Russian Empire, two thousand people and a thousand horses died from frost. In the Lower Volga region in the winter of 1778, birds froze in flight and fell dead. During the Russian-Swedish war of 1808-1809. Russian troops crossed the Baltic Sea on ice. The Little Ice Age in Siberia was even colder. In 1740-1741 V. Bering's expedition recorded very coldy in Kamchatka and Commander Islands. The Swedish traveler I.P. Falk, who visited Siberia in 1771, wrote: “The climate is very harsh, the winter is severe and long... Blizzards often occur in May and September.” In the vicinity of Barnaul, the snow melted only by May 15, and the first leaves appeared on the trees on May 27 (new style). According to descriptions from 1826, in Zmeinogorsk in winter, all the streets and houses in the valleys were covered with snowdrifts up to the tops of the roofs.
Climatic reconstructions for the period 1000-2000. n. e., marked by the Little Ice Age.
The theory of the Little Ice Age is one of the most powerful arguments in the hands of opponents of the concepts of anthropogenic global warming and the greenhouse effect. They argue that modern warming is a natural exit from the Little Ice Age of the 14th-19th centuries, which may lead to the restoration of temperatures of the Little Climatic Optimum of the 14th-13th centuries or even the Atlantic Optimum. In this regard, in their opinion, it is not surprising that at the beginning of the 21st century, average annual temperatures regularly exceed the “climate norm”, because the “climate norms” themselves were written according to the standards of the relatively cold 19th century.
MOSCOW, January 30 - RIA Novosti. A series of volcanic eruptions in the mid-13th century may have been one of trigger mechanisms“Little Ice Age” - an era of severe climate cooling in the late Middle Ages and in modern times, American geophysicists say in an article in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
To date, the exact time frame of this cooling period has not been determined. According to NASA's official definition, the Little Ice Age lasted with short warm "hiatuses" from 1550 to 1850. Most climatologists and geophysicists associate its active phase with a drop in solar activity in the period from 1640 to 1710, which was called the Maunder Minimum. However, other reasons and boundaries of this era are not excluded.
A group of scientists led by Gifford Miller from the University of Colorado in Boulder (USA) discovered one of possible reasons this phenomenon - a series of volcanic eruptions - by studying the remains of plants that were preserved in the glaciers of Baffin Island until today.
As researchers note, many European chronicles from the Middle Ages contain references to a series of unusually cold autumns and winters that destroyed the harvest and brought with them the “Great Famine” of 1315-1317. After this, a period of sharp climate cooling began - glaciers began to advance in northern Scandinavia, snow appeared in Italy, and in Scotland and England rivers began to freeze in winter, which had not been observed before.
In their work, scientists studied 94 fragments of “fossil” moss, whose age ranged from 800 to 2000 AD. Most of plant remains occurred at the end of the 13th century and the beginning of the 14th century. This indicates that in that era, climatic conditions deteriorated sharply, which led to the almost simultaneous death of plants and their burial under the glacier.
The scientists then analyzed mineral composition glacial sediments of this period, mined off the coast of Iceland and the islands of the Canadian Arctic archipelago. These deposits indicated the cessation of melting of glaciers and their gradual expansion in subsequent centuries.
The beginning of the growth of glaciers corresponds in time to the occurrence of four layers of volcanic sulfur, which were found in other parts of the earth's interior. According to researchers, these eruptions occurred approximately 50 years before the onset of cold weather in the tropical part of the globe. Scientists have suggested that it was these cataclysms that caused the “Little Ice Age.”
To test this hypothesis, the scientists used one of the climate models used to produce the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, adapting it to reconstruct the climate of the Middle Ages. As an additional factor, scientists added four volcanic eruptions in the second half of the 13th century and followed the development of events over the next 500 years.
According to geophysicists, the appearance of a large number of soot particles and the subsequent decrease in average annual air temperatures disrupted the functioning of currents in the Atlantic Ocean, which control the transfer of heat from the tropics to mid-latitudes. The disruption of their work caused a gradual decline in their activity and a further drop in temperatures.
According to Miller and his colleagues, another series of eruptions and a decrease in solar activity in the mid-15th century strengthened this effect and extended the duration of the “Little Ice Age” until the 19th century.
I am starting to publish my popular science article about the Little Ice Age in Western Europe and Russia.
In the history of Europe over the last millennium, the Little Ice Age was a significant event with great social consequences. The reasons for it, of course, were not understood by contemporaries and are being studied only today - if only for the sake of the fact that all climatic deviations tend to repeat themselves. To avoid being taken by surprise, you need to know more about this. The connection between natural and social events, characteristic of the Little Ice Age, seemed to have lost its relevance. But this is only at first glance. It is instructive and can shed light not only on the events of Russian history of the 16th-17th centuries, but even on our time. But first things first.
Little Ice Age in Europe.
The Little Ice Age is a global cooling that began in the mid-16th century (the first notable event in Western Europe was the very severe winter of 1564-1565) and continued until the mid-19th century. Sometimes, however, the first cold strikes of the mid-15th century, and even earlier events, are attributed to it. There are currently few temperature reconstructions that could illustrate the climate changes of that time. But we will take an assessment that reflects them indirectly, through changes in the biosphere. These are variations in tree ring thickness from 14 locations in the Northern Hemisphere (Fig. 1).
Rice. 1. Standardized tree ring thickness in the Northern Hemisphere, 1500-1990.
It is clearly visible that from the beginning of the 16th century to its end, the thickness of tree rings decreased by a full third! This is proof of a strong climate change. The changes, of course, occurred not only to the trees, but also affected a sharp decrease in yields. From the 1560s to the end of the century, wheat prices in Europe increased 3-4 times everywhere. On the one hand, Spain was to blame - it “overproduced” silver, but, as can be seen from the prices of industrial goods, this contributed to a rise in prices by 60-80%. Prices herbal products determined primarily by climate change.
It was a long ordeal for agrarian societies. After an extremely difficult period in the middle XVI – first third of XVII centuries, the climate remained unstable for another two centuries. There were several more severe cold spells - the last of them occurred in the first half XIX centuries and caused famine and a wave of emigration from Germany, Ireland and Scandinavia to America. And this was at a time when potatoes had already spread to Europe, which led to a long-term growth of its population.
If we go back to the beginning of the Little Ice Age, its arrival is well described by the change in the purchasing power of Europeans. For example, this is how it changed purchasing power a skilled European carpenter (Fig. 2), measured in liters of grain or in the number of chickens that could be bathed for a week's earnings.
Rice. 2. Change in the purchasing power of the master carpenter XIV - first half 18th century .
Both scales are, of course, connected - chickens are fed grain. The prices of other agricultural products are also related by proportions. It follows from them that the standard of living of a European artisan fell from the mid-15th century to the mid-late 16th century by 4-5 times. More precisely, the decline happened faster - in one or two decades. Much of Europe has become much worse off. According to archaeologists, the average height of a mature man in Northern Europe from the 15th-16th centuries to the 17th-18th centuries decreased by almost 4 cm - from 171.4 cm to 167.5 cm. And again began to recover only in the 19th century. And we must also take into account that more severe winters required more fuel, for which Europe was not rich, and, as a result, a weakening of the population and a number of epidemics.
When the climate changes, the number of its long-term and sharp deviations increases, leading to crop failures. Western Europe suffered a series of mass famines - in the 1590s, 1620s and at the border of the 17th-18th centuries. To this should be added famine in certain countries. The northern countries suffered more - the Danish settlements in Greenland died out, the population of Iceland decreased by half, in Scandinavia, where there were also crop failures and famine, the population found salvation in sea fishing. Frosts destroyed vineyards in England, Poland, and northern Germany. Alpine glaciers began to grow, destroying pastures and villages.
Except economic consequences, climate change had dramatic social changes. They were also fundamentally determined by the economy, which changed with the Little Ice Age.
Social changes in Europe: changing course.
The social dimensions of the climate change in the second half of the 16th century were diverse and many serious works were devoted to their study .
The changes that occurred required explanation within the framework of the understanding of the world of that time. People still actively believed in the intervention of higher powers. As a result, they found the culprits - witches, supposedly influencing the weather with witchcraft. The hunt for them has begun. This is what B. Fagan writes : “In the small town of Wiesensteig in Germany, 63 women were put to death at the stake in 1563 during a time of heated debate about God’s intervention in the weather (note: the burning took place before the first severe winter - S.P.). Witch hunts erupted periodically after the 1560s. Between 1580 and 1620 In the Bern region alone, more than 1,000 people were burned for witchcraft. Accusations of witches in France and England reached a peak in the difficult years of 1587 and 1588. Almost invariably, the psychosis of executions coincided with the most difficult years of the Little Ice Age, when people demanded the destruction of witches, considering them the culprits of misfortunes.” Let us add that the burning of a witch was usually accompanied by the sale of her property and a celebration with the proceeds, as they would say now, a banquet. Therefore, rich bourgeois women often became targets of persecution.
Discussions about the nature of weather variations, even such ones, meant the emergence of meteorology . Even then, weather observations and temperature measurements began. At that time, many other sciences arose - and also in forms unusual for our eyes. For example, alchemy became more active – and gained enormous support from the powers that be! European rulers and other influential people, who became less wealthy as a result of a decrease in their usual income, also looked for such ways to fill the treasury. Astrology also became more active - in uncertain times, everyone wanted to know their future. Even Tycho Brahe and Kepler compiled horoscopes.
At the same time, fantasies about robotics arose - the first robot was the mythical Golem of Prague Rabbi Lev. He made it out of clay and put a piece of paper with a task in his ear - what a program! The clay man was able to work for the owner, replacing a living servant and saving wages.
Fig. 3 Drawings by the classic Mannerist Giovanni Bracelli - ring people, diamond people, robots, skeletal alchemists.
The same kind of mannerism is a strange but characteristic phenomenon that arose at that time in painting, known, in particular, for constructing a person from parts - geometric shapes, birdcages, homogeneous parts. This is a completely unexpected phenomenon, like cubism - but more than 300 years before it. Mannerism is not only a phenomenon of art. The bell man, the grindstone man, the chest of drawers man are the idea of a mechanical doll with a given function, the same robot as the Golem, but more specific, ready to move into the sphere of design. The first technical revolution was not far away, and, as we see, its technical design appeared ahead of the curve.
However, robots and machines are still far away, and money is needed today; we need to save on payments now. And in Europe, almost freed from serfdom during the rise of agriculture, the period of the “second edition” of serfdom begins. A good confirmation of the observation that economic excess gives freedom - and vice versa. The introduction of serfdom was a clear step back, a typical regression, meaning a return to non-monetary payment for the services of the nobles.
Moreover, it should be noted that they tried to carry out enslavement of the peasants in places where serfdom had not existed before - for example, in Sweden, which required a regular army. There they calculated exactly how many peasants could support one soldier, how many could support an officer, and entrusted the peasants with maintaining the army. But in Sweden, serfdom still did not acquire lasting features: Swedish harvests were too low, the people were unaccustomed to the yoke, but accustomed to weapons.
Therefore, perhaps Sweden has become an outstanding example of the revival of a method that also helped make money in the past - piracy, mainly in the Baltic. And its neighbor Norway sent pirates to the North Sea to rob English merchants sailing to Russia and back. At the same time, English corsairs robbed Spanish ships.
Sweden also remembered and increased the Vikings' successes on land, becoming one of the main victors of the Thirty Years' War and seizing huge chunks of the Baltic Sea coast.
At the same time, monarchical power began to strengthen; its attack on the rights of cities began. Absolutism is a new form of economic and social organization.
The pressures of climate change and their economic consequences are clearly responsible for a number of bloody events at the beginning of the Little Ice Age - for example, the civil wars in France 1562-1594, the most acute period of which began with the famous St. Bartholomew's Night (August 24, 1572). The price rise started there from the beginning XV century, but the main events of the multilateral social conflict occurred during a particularly noticeable decline in agricultural production.
And in Spain at that time there was a decline in agriculture and an amazing way to replenish the treasury - a 10% tax on each sale (with 4 resales it was more than 40% of the original price). Spain tried to introduce the same tax in the Netherlands (while also fighting Protestant heretics) - there began a long period of uprisings and wars (1567-1609).
But England began to develop a truly new approach: intensive Agriculture, the capitalist mode of production in the countryside. IN XVI century, 46 works on agronomic topics were published in England. In the first half XVI centuries, English “sheep ate the people” (Thomas More), that is, large wool producers fenced their plots and drove out small tenants; in the second, large farms began to grow in other industries. Agricultural technology grew rapidly. But even here there were political events that can be associated with the cold snap - England took possession of Ireland, weakened by crop failures, and almost subjugated Scotland, where famine was also raging.
What have we discovered in the history of that time? If, in response to climate complications, some countries returned to the past - serfdom, piracy, mysticism, then in other countries capitalism won - in XVI - XVII centuries, England, the Netherlands, and France with different levels complications moved on to the development of manufactories and the active development of trade. The climate shock has accelerated this transition in dramatic ways. But then the uneven development of Europe gave rise to a major conflict comparable to the world wars XX century - the Thirty Years' War, where the trace of the climate change had a “generalizing character” and those better adapted to it defeated the losers.
Note that acute economic conflicts XVI centuries gave rise to a number of terrible historical figures like Henry VIII (1500-1547), who executed about 72 thousand people in England, Marie de Medici (1519-1589), who provoked a bloody war in France, Philip II (1556-1598), who contributed to the decline of Spain and many years of bloody war in the Netherlands. But the rulers who contributed to progress were not distinguished by good characters - remember Elizabeth I Tudor, who did a lot for the development of English capitalism and colonialism, however, a merciless lady, William of Orange, who fiercely fought for leadership in the Dutch revolution, French Henry IV , who ended the war in France and contributed to its bourgeois turn, later killed by enemies. And there were more figures on the thrones than ever before who were strange or simply crazy. Of particular note is Emperor Rudolf II (1552-1612), collector and philanthropist, fan of alchemy and magic, who loved everything unusual.
For the graph were used
Pfister, C. Brázdil, R. Glaser, R. Climatic Variability in Sixteenth-Century Europe and Its Social Dimension. Dordrecht-Boston-London: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1999.
Behringer W. Climatic Change and Witch-Hunting: The Impact of the Little Ice Age on Mentalities IN: Climatic Variability in the Sixteenth-Century Europe and Its Social DimensionSpecial Issue of Climatic Change, Vol. 43, No. 1, September 1999