The theoretical essence of the labor market and the problem of unemployment. The essence of unemployment, its types, causes and consequences. Forms of unemployment. Dynamics of unemployment in the Russian Federation from 2000 to 2016. Analysis of the state of unemployment in Russia for 2016-2017. Unemployment rate by region of Russia in 2016-2017. The fight against unemployment in Russia: directions, methods, results. Measures to combat unemployment taken by the Government of the Russian Federation in 2016-2017.
Coursework on the topic:
Unemployment in Russia in 2016-2017
INTRODUCTION
Chapter 1. The theoretical essence of the labor market and the problem of unemployment.
1.1 Labor market, its concept and essence
Chapter 2. Analysis of the state of unemployment in Russia for 2016-2017.
2.1 Analysis of unemployment in Russia in 2000-2016
Conclusion
INTRODUCTION
The economic well-being of any country depends on the rate of economic growth. There are several determinants or factors of economic development. For example, such as industrialization, agriculture, population, employment, etc. One of the main indicators of economic growth is the employment rate, since its decline has an adverse effect on the entire economy. Whenever there is a high level of employment, production improves, thereby raising the standard of living.
The country's high unemployment rate leads to social and economic problems in society as a whole. Economic problems lead to decreased production of goods and services, decreased income distribution, loss of tax revenue, decreased GDP levels, etc.
Unemployment is the most serious problem facing governments around the world. Politicians and scientists are trying their best to solve this problem. The worsening employment problem threatens a deterioration in the economic situation, and subsequently, a social revolution.
The problems of employment and unemployment are given the most serious attention in all countries of the world. Both developing and developed countries are looking for ways to solve the difficult problem of creating decent and permanent jobs, since decent employment is the only way to get rid of poverty and a prerequisite for sustainable economic development of the country. It is no coincidence that a new one has appeared among the goals set out in the Millennium Development Goals - ensuring full and productive employment and decent work for all.
In modern Russia, unemployment remains at a satisfactory level. Although in the 90s there were also catastrophic indicators. Since the early 2000s, the authorities have managed to curb unemployment, bringing it to an adequate level. economic development country level.
However, the problem of employment does not lose its relevance. Especially considering the demographic situation in Russia, where the percentage of the population of retirement age is critically high.
The continuation of international sanctions and vagueness do not contribute to the increase in the number of jobs. And the departure of a number of large foreign companies from the domestic market further aggravates the situation.
To achieve this goal, the following will be resolved: tasks:
1. Consider the labor market, its concept and essence.
2. Determine the essence of unemployment, its types, causes and consequences.
3. Analyze the dynamics of unemployment in Russia in 2000-2016.
4. Assess the state of unemployment in Russia in 2017.
5. Formulate the directions, methods and results of the fight against unemployment in Russia at the present stage.
Work structure, determined by its purpose and objectives, consists of an introduction, 2 chapters and 5 paragraphs, a conclusion and a list of references.
Chapter 1. The theoretical essence of the labor market and the problem of unemployment
1.1 Labor market, its concept and essence
Before studying unemployment, it is important to understand where exactly this phenomenon takes place and what are the features of its functioning. Unemployment arises and develops in a specific market - the labor market.
The labor market is a complex of economic relationships regarding the turnover of a specific product - labor. This is a market in which ability to work is exchanged for appropriate payment.
The labor market determines demand, supply and price for labor and, consequently, for labor services. Subjects economic relations The labor market is represented, on the one hand, by entrepreneurs - large monopolies, medium and small businessmen, the state, and on the other, by individual workers or their associations (trade unions). Prices prevailing in the labor market represent rates wages, which are the monetary form of the cost of labor. The labor market situation is characterized by the relationship between available jobs and unemployed and able-bodied citizens looking for work. Together with other types of market, the labor market forms an economic system of the market mechanism. Moreover, the labor market occupies a central position in the structure of the market economy and acts as a kind of foundation on which the entire market system, because without the labor market the optimal functioning and development of a market economy is practically unthinkable.
In macroeconomics, it is customary to distinguish between national and global labor markets. The national one functions in the economy of the country as a whole, the global one - on a global economic scale and exists in the form of international labor migration.
The labor market, being one of the main components of the general economic market mechanism, implements a specific function of distribution and redistribution of labor resources across areas, industries, regions, professions, specialties, qualifications in accordance with the law of supply and demand. The labor market, according to a number of principles of the mechanism of its work, is a market of a specific kind, which has many significant differences from other commodity markets. Labor market regulators are factors not only of macro and microeconomics, but also socio-economic and socio-psychological aspects, which are not always directly correlated with wages.
The dynamics of the labor market are characterized by a number of features, the main ones being the following:
1. Labor productivity of workers, unlike other factors of production, can change significantly based on how optimally the labor process is organized, as well as on the level of personal motivation of a person at work.
2. Work, as a rule, is carried out by groups of workers who independently set production standards for them.
3. In the labor market, the owner of the means of production and the owner of the labor force intersect, between whom bargaining takes place regarding specific type labor (work of a mechanic, cook, builder, engineer, etc.), as well as the conditions and duration of use of the employee.
4. A typical feature of the labor market is the constant excess of labor supply over demand for it.
5. In the labor market, there is competition between workers for available jobs. In this struggle, the winner is the one who can provide the employer with the greatest profit through his labor.
Work force:
A) a person’s ability to work;
B) a complex of physical and mental skills of a person that are used by him in the labor process;
C) the total number of workers in the country;
D) part of the population, including employed, self-employed and job seekers (unemployed).
In reality, the labor force functions, develops and enriches itself in the process of a person’s labor activity. Socially - economic conditions The functioning of the labor force is directly dependent on the method of communication between the manufacturer and the conditions of production.
The gender, age and professional qualification structure of the workforce, as well as its size, significantly influence the labor potential of the state. In those countries where the share of young workers is significant, there is extensive potential for their retraining, which is a key advantage in terms of introducing the achievements of scientific and technical progress.
1.2 The essence of unemployment, its types, causes and consequences
Unemployment is a complex and multifaceted socio-economic phenomenon, manifested in the lack of employment among a certain part of the working population, ready and able to carry out labor activities.
To objectively understand the essence of unemployment, it is necessary to determine who can be considered unemployed. The criteria for defining a person as unemployed are usually established by law or relevant documents. At the same time, in different countries these criteria may differ slightly from each other.
In the United States, unemployed people are considered to be people who have been unemployed for a week, who have been actively looking for work in the previous four weeks, who are temporarily laid off, or who are employed new job and must begin work within 30 days.
In Japan, people who have not worked a single hour during the week are considered unemployed. Posted on the site
In the UK, unemployed people are people who have been unemployed for a week, who are looking for work during this time or who are unable to look for work due to illness, or who are waiting for the outcome of negotiations for a job.
In the Russian Federation, the unemployed are “able-bodied citizens who do not have a job or income, are registered with the employment service in order to find a suitable job, are looking for work and are ready to start it. At the same time, payments of severance pay and maintained average earnings to citizens dismissed from organizations (military service) regardless of their organizational and legal form and form of ownership due to the liquidation of the organization or a reduction in the number or staff of the organization’s employees are not taken into account as earnings.”
In modern economics, unemployment is seen as a natural and integral part of a market economy. It promotes:
1.improving the quality structure of the labor force, its competitiveness as a product;
2.formation of a new motivational mechanism and an appropriate attitude towards work;
3.increasing the intrinsic value of the workplace and strengthening the connection between a person and work;
4.availability of a labor reserve in case of need for rapid deployment of new production.
In this regard, the classification of forms of unemployment according to various criteria presented in Table 1 is of great interest.
Table 1 - Forms of unemployment and their characteristics
| Form of unemployment | Characteristic |
| Causes of unemployment | |
| Friction | Caused by a voluntary change of job due to various reasons: the search for higher earnings or a more prestigious job with more favorable conditions labor, etc. |
| Institutional | Generated by the very structure of the labor market, factors influencing the demand and supply of labor |
| Voluntary | Appears when part of the working population, for one reason or another, simply does not want to work |
| Structural | Caused by changes in structure social production under the influence of scientific and technological progress and improvement of production organization |
| Technological | Associated with the transition to new generations of equipment and technology, mechanization and automation of manual labor |
| Cyclic | Occurs when there is a general sharp drop in demand for labor during a period of decline in production and business activity caused by the economic crisis |
| Regional | It has a regional origin and is formed under the influence of a complex combination of historical, demographic, socio-psychological circumstances |
| Economic | Caused by market conditions, the defeat of some producers in competition |
| Seasonal | Caused by the seasonal nature of activity in certain industries |
|
Marginal |
Unemployment among vulnerable groups of the population |
| Duration of unemployment in months | |
| Short term | Up to 4 |
| Long lasting | 4-8 |
| Long-term | 8-18 |
| Stagnant | Over 18 |
| External form of unemployment | |
| Open | Includes all unemployed job seekers |
| Hidden | Includes workers actually employed in the economy, but not actually working, as well as those whose labor is not necessary. |
A logical continuation of this classification of forms of unemployment is its structuring according to the following gender, age, professional qualification and socio-demographic factors:
1.gender (with highlighting the least socially protected unemployed - women);
2.age (with a focus on youth unemployment and unemployment among people of pre-retirement age);
3. labor occupation (workers, managers, specialists, unskilled workers and others);
4.level of education;
5. level of income and security;
6.reasons for dismissal;
1) Inflated labor costs (wages) required by the seller or trade union. The behavior of the buyer (employer) in the labor market is determined in these conditions by the correlation of the costs of purchasing labor and the income that he will receive from its use for a certain period of time with the costs that he will incur in connection with the purchase of equipment that replaces the labor strength, and the result that this machine will bring him. Scientific and technological progress and an increase in the technological level of production are still one of the reasons for the growth of unemployment in modern conditions.
2) Low price of labor (wages), which is set by the employer. Depends on the degree of formation of the labor market, its flexibility and other characteristics. For example, in labor-abundant regions, the employer can dictate labor prices. In this case, the seller (hired worker) refuses to sell his labor for next to nothing and is looking for another buyer. For a certain time, he may find himself without work and be classified as unemployed.
3) Lack of cost, and, accordingly, the price of labor. There are always people in society who cannot be involved in the production process due to their lack of labor as such or the presence of labor of such low quality that the buyer (employer) does not want to purchase it. These are tramps, declassed elements, disabled people, etc. This category of citizens, as a rule, forever loses their job and hope of finding it and falls into the category of stagnant unemployed. Therefore, the key cause of unemployment is imbalance in the labor market. Such disequilibrium especially increases during economic downturns, wars, natural disasters, etc.
Consequences of unemployment.
Unemployment has serious economic and social consequences. Some of the economic consequences of unemployment include the following:
1. underproduction, underutilization of society's production capabilities.
2. a significant decrease in the standard of living of people who find themselves unemployed, since work is their main source of livelihood;
3.decrease in the level of wages of employees as a result of emerging competition in the labor market;
4.increase tax burden on busy people due to necessity social support unemployed, payments of benefits and compensation, etc.
In addition to purely economic costs, unemployment also has significant social and psychological consequences, often less obvious, but more serious than economic ones. The main ones are the following:
1.increasing political instability and social tension in society;
2. aggravation of the criminogenic situation, an increase in crime, since a significant number of offenses and crimes are committed by non-working persons;
3.an increase in the number of suicides, mental and cardiovascular diseases, mortality from alcoholism, and cases of deviant behavior in general;
4. deformation of the personality of the unemployed and his social connections, expressed in the appearance of depression in life among involuntarily unemployed citizens, their loss of qualifications and practical skills; exacerbation family relations and family breakdowns, reduction of external social connections of the unemployed. The consequences of unemployment are long-lasting. The former unemployed, even after employment, is characterized by reduced labor activity and conformity of behavior, which requires significant efforts to rehabilitate the unemployed.
Social-psychological and economic consequences unemployment clearly demonstrate that this is a very dangerous phenomenon for society and the individual, requiring an active employment policy aimed not only at eliminating the consequences of unemployment, but also at preventing and preventing its uncontrolled growth beyond the minimum permissible value.
Chapter 2. Analysis of the state of unemployment in Russia for 2016-2017
2.1 Analysis of unemployment in Russia in 2000-2016
The crisis situation in the Russian economy since 2014 is closely interconnected with the employment sector of the country's population. Already at the beginning of 2015, unemployment began to rise. Official statistics differ from real unemployment figures. Therefore, let us pay attention to some points that Rosstat notes in notes, footnotes, and explanations of calculations.
Statistics are based on an analysis of a sample of the population, and not all citizens of the country. The official source reports summing up the results of a “sample survey of the population on employment problems.”
Statistics for Crimea are not taken into account. Quote from an official source: “in order to ensure statistical comparability, the data were calculated without taking into account information for the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.”
Unemployment is reduced not due to the employment of previously unemployed citizens, but due to a decrease in the number of economically active population. In other words: there are more old people and young people, and the working-age population is getting smaller.
There are many unemployed citizens in the country, about whose employment there is no official information or it is inaccurate. Thus, they are not taken into account in Rosstat reports and can distort the real unemployment situation in individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation and in the country as a whole.
Table 1. Unemployment rate in the Russian Federation in the 2000s
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
| 10,6 | 9,0 | 7,9 | 8,2 | 7,8 | 7,1 | 7,1 | 6,0 | 6,2 | 8,3 |
Table 2. Unemployment rate in the 2010s
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
| 7,3 | 6,5 | 5,5 | 5,5 | 5,2 | 5,6 | 5,8 |
Figure 1. Dynamics of the unemployment rate from 2000 to 2016.
In 2016, the unemployment rate decreased to 5.3% of the labor force (with the exception of seasonal factors - to 5.2% of the labor force). On average, in 2016, unemployment amounted to 5.5% of the total labor force (in the labor force balance methodology, according to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, 5.8% of the labor force), which is 0.1 percentage point less than in 2015 .
Table 1. Russian labor market in 2016.
At the end of the year, there was a slight increase in the labor force due to an increase in the number of employed people in such activities as Education, Transport and Communications and Agriculture. On average, in 2016, the labor force and the employed population showed a symbolic increase of 0.1 percent. Registered unemployment at the end of 2016 amounted to 895 thousand people (5.5% mom).
A positive moment in the labor market can be considered the decrease in part-time employment at the end of 2016. Thus, according to monitoring indicators of the Ministry of Labor of Russia, the number of part-time workers who are on downtime at the initiative of the administration and on vacation by agreement of the parties, as of the end of 2016, amounted to 258.8 thousand people, i.e. 2.3 thousand fewer people than at the beginning of December 2016.
As a result of a decrease in the number of vacancies and an increase in registered unemployment, the tension ratio increased from 81.5 people per 100 vacancies in November to 86.8 people per 100 vacancies in December.
In general, unemployment in Russia in 2016 can be considered satisfactory, especially taking into account the economic situation in the country.
2.2 Analysis of unemployment in Russia in 2017
Since January 2017, Rosstat has been selectively surveying the state of labor force employment among the population aged 15 years and older. According to the results of the study, in June 2017, the labor force amounted to 76.2 million people, which is 52% of the total population of the country, of which 72.3 million people were employed in the economy and 3.9 million people were not had a job, but were actively looking for it (in accordance with the ILO methodology, they are classified as unemployed). The employment rate of the population aged 15 years and older was fixed at 59.5%, the unemployment rate - 5.1%.
Until 2017, the population aged 15-72 years was surveyed. In order to continue the dynamic series, the following information is provided on the number and composition of workers at the specified age.
The labor force aged 15-72 years in June 2017 amounted to 75.9 million people, of which 72.1 million people were classified as employed in economic activities and 3.8 million people were classified as unemployed using ILO criteria ( i.e., did not have a job or gainful occupation, were looking for work and were ready to start work in the survey week).
Unemployment rate (the ratio of the number of unemployed to the labor force) in June 2017. amounted to 5.1% (without excluding the seasonal factor).
The employment rate (the ratio of the employed population to the total population aged 15-72 years) in 2017 was 65.5%.
Table 2. Number and composition of the labor force aged 15-72 years.
(not seasonally adjusted)
| IIquarter 2017 | 2017 | IIquarter 2016 |
IIquarter 2017 co IIquarter 2016, |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | May | June | ||||
| Thousand people | ||||||
| Aged workforce 15-72 years |
75843 | 75763 | 75816 | 75950 | 76558 | -715 |
| busy | 71896 | 71713 | 71871 | 72104 | 72225 | -329 |
| unemployed | 3947 | 4050 | 3945 | 3846 | 4333 | -386 |
| In percentages | ||||||
|
Participation level labor force (labor force to population aged 15-72 years) |
68,8 | 68,8 | 68,8 | 68,9 | 69,5 | -0,7 |
|
Employment rate (employed to number aged population 15-72 years old) |
65,3 | 65,1 | 65,2 | 65,5 | 65,5 | -0,2 |
|
Unemployment rate (unemployed to labor force) |
5,2 | 5,3 | 5,2 | 5,1 | 5,7 | -0,5 |
Number of employed people in June 2017 increased compared to May 2017 by 232 thousand people, or 0.3%, and decreased compared to June 2016 - by 570 thousand people, or 0.8%.
Number of unemployed in June 2017 compared to May 2017 decreased by 99 thousand people, or 2.5%, compared to June 2016. - by 331 thousand people, or 7.9%.
The total number of unemployed people classified in accordance with ILO criteria was 4.7 times higher than the number of unemployed people registered with state employment service institutions. At the end of June 2017 In state employment service institutions, 816 thousand people were registered as unemployed, which is 3.2% less than in May 2017. and by 15.7% - compared to June 2016.
Among the unemployed (according to ILO methodology), the share of women in June 2017 amounted to 47.8%, urban residents - 64.7%, youth under 25 years of age - 21.8%, persons with no work experience - 27.3%.
The unemployment rate among rural residents (7.6%) exceeds the unemployment rate among urban residents (4.3%). In June 2017 this excess was 1.8 times.
In June 2017 Among the unemployed, the share of people who left their previous place of work due to the dismissal or reduction of the number of employees, the liquidation of an organization or their own business was 14.9%, and in connection with voluntary dismissal - 24.6% (in June 2016, respectively , 18.5% and 25.3%).
Unemployment by federal districts. Let's consider unemployment rate by regions of Russia in 2016-2017 years.
Russia unemployment 2016 course work
In order to increase the information content of the data, indicators of the labor force, employment and unemployment by region Russian Federation are given on average for the last three months.
Table 3. Number and composition of the workforce in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
At the age of 15-72 years (according to sample labor force surveys on average for the second quarter of 2017)
|
Number working strength, thousand Human |
Including | Level, % | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| busy | unemployed | labor force participation | employment | unemployment | ||
| Russian Federation | 75843,1 | 71896,2 | 3946,9 | 68,8 | 65,3 | 5,2 |
|
Central federal district |
21184,5 | 20496,3 | 688,2 | 71,0 | 68,7 | 3,2 |
| Belgorod region | 823,3 | 790,9 | 32,4 | 70,2 | 67,4 | 3,9 |
| Bryansk region | 606,1 | 584,5 | 21,5 | 65,9 | 63,5 | 3,6 |
| Vladimir region | 741,9 | 709,4 | 32,5 | 70,5 | 67,4 | 4,4 |
| Voronezh region | 1173,3 | 1122,0 | 51,3 | 66,4 | 63,5 | 4,4 |
| Ivanovo region | 529,8 | 504,5 | 25,3 | 68,3 | 65,1 | 4,8 |
| Kaluga region | 529,1 | 507,1 | 22,0 | 69,2 | 66,3 | 4,2 |
| Kostroma region | 318,3 | 301,9 | 16,4 | 65,7 | 62,4 | 5,1 |
| Kursk region | 571,7 | 548,1 | 23,6 | 67,9 | 65,1 | 4,1 |
| Lipetsk region | 603,3 | 579,5 | 23,8 | 69,5 | 66,7 | 3,9 |
| Moscow region | 4074,5 | 3936,8 | 137,7 | 72,8 | 70,4 | 3,4 |
| Oryol Region | 376,7 | 350,3 | 26,4 | 65,6 | 61,0 | 7,0 |
| Ryazan Oblast | 529,7 | 512,1 | 17,6 | 62,3 | 60,2 | 3,3 |
| Smolensk region | 509,4 | 479,5 | 29,9 | 69,1 | 65,0 | 5,9 |
| Tambov Region | 517,7 | 493,5 | 24,2 | 65,0 | 62,0 | 4,7 |
| Tver region | 678,2 | 646,0 | 32,1 | 69,4 | 66,1 | 4,7 |
| Tula region | 789,9 | 761,2 | 28,7 | 69,0 | 66,5 | 3,6 |
| Yaroslavl region | 651,4 | 608,6 | 42,8 | 68,5 | 64,0 | 6,6 |
| Moscow | 7160,3 | 7060,3 | 100,0 | 75,0 | 73,9 | 1,4 |
|
Northwestern federal district |
7559,3 | 7251,9 | 307,4 | 71,3 | 68,4 | 4,1 |
| Republic of Karelia | 320,9 | 296,5 | 24,4 | 67,6 | 62,5 | 7,6 |
| Komi Republic | 450,0 | 419,4 | 30,6 | 69,2 | 64,5 | 6,8 |
| Arhangelsk region | 588,9 | 551,7 | 37,2 | 66,9 | 62,6 | 6,3 |
| including Nenets Autonomous Okrug |
21,1 | 19,4 | 1,7 | 65,9 | 60,4 | 8,3 |
| Arhangelsk region without auto district |
567,7 | 532,3 | 35,4 | 66,9 | 62,7 | 6,2 |
| Vologda Region | 591,3 | 563,7 | 27,6 | 66,9 | 63,8 | 4,7 |
| Kaliningrad region | 508,9 | 482,1 | 26,8 | 68,1 | 64,5 | 5,3 |
| Leningrad region | 996,6 | 950,9 | 45,7 | 72,2 | 68,9 | 4,6 |
| Murmansk region | 441,0 | 411,0 | 30,0 | 74,6 | 69,5 | 6,8 |
| Novgorod region | 318,7 | 304,1 | 14,7 | 69,6 | 66,4 | 4,6 |
| Pskov region | 314,5 | 293,4 | 21,1 | 64,7 | 60,4 | 6,7 |
| Saint Petersburg | 3028,5 | 2979,1 | 49,3 | 74,7 | 73,5 | 1,6 |
|
Southern federal district |
8109,7 | 7618,5 | 491,2 | 66,3 | 62,3 | 6,1 |
| Republic of Adygea | 200,1 | 182,5 | 17,6 | 60,2 | 54,9 | 8,8 |
| Republic of Kalmykia | 133,5 | 121,7 | 11,7 | 65,0 | 59,3 | 8,8 |
| Republic of Crimea | 909,3 | 851,1 | 58,2 | 63,9 | 59,8 | 6,4 |
| Krasnodar region | 2748,7 | 2589,4 | 159,3 | 67,0 | 63,1 | 5,8 |
| Astrakhan region | 533,8 | 495,2 | 38,6 | 71,0 | 65,9 | 7,2 |
| Volgograd region | 1238,0 | 1162,4 | 75,6 | 64,8 | 60,9 | 6,1 |
| Rostov region | 2141,6 | 2020,2 | 121,4 | 67,0 | 63,2 | 5,7 |
| Sevastopol | 204,7 | 196,0 | 8,6 | 64,7 | 62,0 | 4,2 |
|
North Caucasian federal district |
4537,7 | 4031,6 | 506,1 | 65,2 | 57,9 | 11,2 |
| The Republic of Dagestan | 1356,1 | 1190,0 | 166,1 | 63,0 | 55,2 | 12,2 |
| The Republic of Ingushetia | 244,4 | 177,7 | 66,8 | 75,2 | 54,7 | 27,3 |
| Kabardino-Balkarian Republic |
436,9 | 394,7 | 42,2 | 68,9 | 62,3 | 9,7 |
| Karachay-Cherkessia Republic |
208,8 | 179,9 | 28,9 | 60,8 | 52,4 | 13,9 |
| Northern Republic Ossetia - Alania |
327,9 | 288,1 | 39,7 | 64,7 | 56,9 | 12,1 |
| Chechen Republic | 621,5 | 534,2 | 87,3 | 68,5 | 58,9 | 14,0 |
| Stavropol region | 1341,9 | 1267,0 | 75,0 | 64,1 | 60,5 | 5,6 |
|
Privolzhsky federal district |
15153,7 | 14430,2 | 723,4 | 68,1 | 64,9 | 4,8 |
| Republic of Bashkortostan | 1950,2 | 1842,5 | 107,7 | 65,0 | 61,4 | 5,5 |
| Mari El Republic | 344,3 | 322,8 | 21,5 | 67,0 | 62,8 | 6,2 |
| The Republic of Mordovia | 438,4 | 419,8 | 18,6 | 70,3 | 67,4 | 4,2 |
| Republic of Tatarstan | 2047,7 | 1972,2 | 75,5 | 71,0 | 68,4 | 3,7 |
| Udmurt republic | 794,5 | 753,1 | 41,4 | 70,5 | 66,8 | 5,2 |
| Chuvash Republic | 627,5 | 595,2 | 32,3 | 68,1 | 64,6 | 5,2 |
| Perm region | 1265,5 | 1183,2 | 82,3 | 64,7 | 60,5 | 6,5 |
| Kirov region | 664,9 | 629,1 | 35,8 | 68,5 | 64,8 | 5,4 |
| Nizhny Novgorod Region | 1772,4 | 1697,1 | 75,3 | 71,9 | 68,8 | 4,3 |
| Orenburg region | 1014,9 | 969,5 | 45,4 | 69,0 | 65,9 | 4,5 |
| Penza region | 677,2 | 646,6 | 30,7 | 66,1 | 63,1 | 4,5 |
| Samara Region | 1716,5 | 1645,3 | 71,1 | 70,4 | 67,5 | 4,1 |
| Saratov region | 1208,2 | 1150,3 | 58,0 | 64,2 | 61,2 | 4,8 |
| Ulyanovsk region | 631,4 | 603,4 | 28,0 | 65,8 | 62,9 | 4,4 |
|
Ural federal district |
6357,1 | 5992,8 | 364,3 | 69,1 | 65,2 | 5,7 |
| Kurgan region | 402,9 | 367,4 | 35,5 | 64,0 | 58,3 | 8,8 |
| Sverdlovsk region | 2153,8 | 2029,3 | 124,5 | 66,7 | 62,9 | 5,8 |
| Tyumen region | 1943,2 | 1866,8 | 76,4 | 71,1 | 68,3 | 3,9 |
| including: Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra |
910,3 | 881,5 | 28,8 | 73,4 | 71,1 | 3,2 |
| Yamalo-Nenets auto district |
312,4 | 301,6 | 10,8 | 76,5 | 73,8 | 3,5 |
| Tyumen region without auto districts |
720,5 | 683,6 | 36,9 | 66,5 | 63,1 | 5,1 |
| Chelyabinsk region | 1857,2 | 1729,3 | 127,8 | 71,3 | 66,4 | 6,9 |
|
Siberian federal district |
9600,5 | 8913,8 | 686,7 | 66,8 | 62,0 | 7,2 |
| Altai Republic | 97,8 | 87,3 | 10,5 | 65,9 | 58,8 | 10,8 |
| The Republic of Buryatia | 443,2 | 401,2 | 42,0 | 62,7 | 56,7 | 9,5 |
| Tyva Republic | 122,0 | 101,5 | 20,5 | 59,3 | 49,4 | 16,8 |
| The Republic of Khakassia | 260,9 | 249,9 | 11,0 | 65,9 | 63,2 | 4,2 |
| Altai region | 1122,0 | 1050,4 | 71,6 | 63,3 | 59,2 | 6,4 |
| Transbaikal region | 535,1 | 477,7 | 57,4 | 67,2 | 60,0 | 10,7 |
| Krasnoyarsk region | 1496,8 | 1414,9 | 81,9 | 69,2 | 65,4 | 5,5 |
| Irkutsk region | 1199,2 | 1095,3 | 103,9 | 67,5 | 61,7 | 8,7 |
| Kemerovo region | 1337,1 | 1241,8 | 95,3 | 66,0 | 61,3 | 7,1 |
| Novosibirsk region | 1406,2 | 1329,0 | 77,2 | 67,4 | 63,7 | 5,5 |
| Omsk region | 1032,1 | 960,4 | 71,8 | 69,6 | 64,8 | 7,0 |
| Tomsk region | 548,1 | 504,4 | 43,6 | 66,8 | 61,4 | 8,0 |
|
Far Eastern federal district |
3340,6 | 3161,1 | 179,6 | 70,7 | 66,9 | 5,4 |
| The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) | 499,7 | 467,0 | 32,7 | 70,8 | 66,2 | 6,5 |
| Kamchatka Krai | 179,1 | 172,8 | 6,3 | 72,3 | 69,7 | 3,5 |
| Primorsky Krai | 1030,2 | 974,3 | 55,9 | 69,3 | 65,5 | 5,4 |
| Khabarovsk region | 734,5 | 702,8 | 31,7 | 71,7 | 68,6 | 4,3 |
| Amur region | 417,6 | 392,3 | 25,3 | 68,8 | 64,7 | 6,0 |
| Magadan Region | 90,0 | 85,0 | 5,0 | 77,8 | 73,5 | 5,6 |
| Sakhalin region | 273,5 | 257,6 | 15,9 | 72,5 | 68,3 | 5,8 |
| Jewish Autonomous Region | 85,2 | 79,6 | 5,6 | 68,7 | 64,2 | 6,6 |
| Chukotka Autonomous Okrug | 30,9 | 29,6 | 1,3 | 79,6 | 76,4 | 4,1 |
| In some cases, minor discrepancies between the total and the sum of the terms are explained by rounding of digital data. | ||||||
The lowest unemployment rate is observed in the Central Federal District, the highest in the North Caucasus Federal District.
These are the statistics on unemployment in Russia in 2016-2017.
2.3 The fight against unemployment in Russia: directions, methods, results
The state plays a priority role in the fight against unemployment. To regulate the labor market in order to ensure employment, the state works in various directions, the key of which can be considered:
State support for private entrepreneurs;
Social unemployment insurance;
Various programs to increase the number of jobs;
Programs to stimulate employment growth;
Allocation of funds for various types unemployment benefits;
Providing training;
Retraining of the unemployed;
Providing jobs for specific groups (youth, disabled people);
International cooperation (migration);
Organization of public works.
Now let’s look at specific practical measures taken by the Government of the Russian Federation in 2016-2017 to combat unemployment.
In 2016, the Russian government allocated 776 million rubles to 17 Russian regions to combat unemployment.
These funds made it possible to provide employment to more than 25.8 thousand workers who were at risk of dismissal and people looking for work.
The funds were distributed to residents of Buryatia, Ingushetia, Karelia, Komi, the Chuvash Republic, Altai, Trans-Baikal Territories, Ivanovo, Kaliningrad, Kurgan, Nizhny Novgorod, Ryazan, Saratov, Smolensk, Tula, Chelyabinsk and Yaroslavl regions.
The regions allocated money to implement employment programs. Namely - to advance professional education and internship for workers at risk of dismissal;
For compensation to employers implementing enterprise development programs, including import substitution, innovation, personnel development, expenses for partial remuneration of workers dismissed from other organizations, children who graduated from professional educational institutions and the unemployed;
To organize temporary employment of people at risk of dismissal; to reimburse employers for costs associated with the employment of disabled people.
In 2017, measures to combat unemployment in Russia include:
1. INTRODUCTION of restrictive quotas on foreign labor (quotas on the issuance foreign citizens invitations to enter the Russian Federation for employment purposes).
2. Promoting the introduction of additional jobs and employment of citizens in small and medium-sized businesses.
3.Development of a five-year forecast for labor demand with an average vocational education by country and regions.
4.Mass adoption of private and public online learning platforms. The list of programs for retraining in the field of digital economy will be determined with the participation of universities and private companies with advanced training courses and educational developments.
For 2017, it is planned to continue reforming the current model of unemployment regulation, i.e. reduction of inefficient jobs. This process requires the restructuring of city-forming enterprises, the creation special programs for advanced training, mastering a new specialty.
Also in 2017, it is planned to develop incentive systems for late retirement for the most highly qualified workers.
The key determinants of the reduction in unemployment in Russia in 2017 may be both external and internal phenomena and circumstances. External ones include further development cooperation with priority trade and economic partners, including in the construction of gas pipelines to Turkey and China. Among the internal factors, along with others, it is also necessary to include the weather factor, on which, for example, the growth in the number of people employed in the agricultural sector depends. This also includes the implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects, such as the construction of the Kerch Bridge, the construction of facilities for the 2018 FIFA World Cup, the development of energy fields in the Arctic, etc.
Update:
According to the latest statistics, Russia has the lowest unemployment rate in the last three years, the Bank of Russia reported in August 2017.
Its level dropped to 4.9%, which is very typical for late summer and early autumn. But exactly this indicator has not been observed since 2014.
The regulator notes that this year the decrease in August compared to July was the largest in the last five years, since in July the unemployment rate increased despite seasonality. This was due to a shift in harvest dates due to the cold first half of summer, which occurred in most Russian regions.
Conclusion
Unemployment is a socio-economic phenomenon in the labor market, in which a certain part of the working-age population is unemployed due to the lack of effective demand on the part of employers for labor as a factor of production.
Unemployment has remained relevant throughout history. Despite social, economic and technological progress, the problem of unemployment does not lose its relevance, and on the contrary, it is gaining momentum.
To assess unemployment in economics, various indicators are used, but the unemployment rate is generally accepted. It is determined by the ratio of the total number of unemployed to the number of able-bodied citizens in percentage terms.
Main types of unemployment: institutional, structural, seasonal, frictional, cyclical. Each type of unemployment is determined by its specific causes and circumstances. At the same time, in Western macroeconomic theory it is customary to identify three main causes of unemployment - economic conditions, new technologies and a growing population.
Unemployment in Russia has a specific character; it has very diverse and atypical features. The reasons for its development include general economic instability, inadequate market infrastructure, the global crisis, population migration, and overpopulation in certain regions of the country.
Shishkina Natalia Igorevna - Expert at the Center for Scientific Political Thought and Ideology
About the publication: Unemployment statistics in Russia are considered. The relevance of the study is given by the dynamics of the crisis factor and the “cunning” of official statistics, which embellishes reality. Indirect methods of verifying official data were used. The hypothesis about the distortion of the real unemployment rate was confirmed. It is shown that unemployment is higher than the official one and tends to increase.
The crisis in Russia, which began in 2014, has exacerbated many important problems, including problems in the field of employment. Due to the increase in unemployment at the beginning of 2015, the Government began to develop plans to combat unemployment, the basis of which was the support of vocational retraining programs. But already in April-May, the growth of unemployment slowed down, which became the reason for the emergence of initiatives to curtail additional programs promotion of employment and employment.
What is unemployment? According to the ILO methodology, which with some modifications is used by Rosstat, the unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of economically active population aged 15-72 years, who at the time of the survey did not have a job, were looking for work and were ready to start work, to the total number of economically active population .
It is customary to distinguish between natural and true unemployment. Natural unemployment is associated with a change of place of work or the reluctance of certain social groups to work. True unemployment is represented by unemployment due to technical development or large-scale economic reforms, regional unemployment, characteristic for certain reasons in a particular region, cyclical unemployment associated with economic crises and hidden unemployment, practically not recorded by statistical services.
The purpose of this study is to examine changes in the unemployment rate in Russia. In this regard, the task arises of identifying the level of unemployment, not only obvious, but also hidden.
The registration of the unemployed in Russia is carried out in two ways: on the basis of applications to the employment service, and according to a population survey on employment problems, which is carried out in the amount of 0.06% of the population. In Russia as a whole, 65 thousand people aged 15-72 years are examined quarterly, and about 260 thousand people are examined annually.
According to Rosstat sample surveys of the population, in April 2015, 4.4 million people (5.8% of the economically active population) were unemployed. Employment service agencies recorded even less - 1 million people. The president also used the same data during the “direct line” in April 2015, answering a question about the results of the year. At the same time, according to sociological surveys, as of February 2015, 27% of the population noted a reduction in personnel at their enterprises at the end of 2014 - beginning of 2015.
According to Rosstat, the unemployment rate over the past 10 years has fluctuated from 5.3% in 2014 to 8.2% in the crisis year of 2009, generally changing towards a decrease in unemployment (Fig. 1).
Rice. 1. Dynamics of the unemployment rate according to Rosstat, (*) 2015 - average for January-April
In total, the number of unemployed in Russia, according to EMISS (Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System) for the first quarter of 2015, is 4.3 million people. But it should be taken into account that both EMISS and Rosstat do not take into account the so-called hidden unemployment, when a worker is formally listed as working at an enterprise, but in fact does not work, which is due to the sources on which Rosstat and EMISS rely.
Regionally, the worst situation is in the Republic of Ingushetia - the unemployment rate there was 29.9% in April 2015. In other North Caucasus republics, as well as Kalmykia, Trans-Baikal Territory, Sevastopol, the Republic of Tyva and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the unemployment rate exceeded 10%.
The unemployment rate within 3% is observed only in Moscow and St. Petersburg. It is in the central part of Russia that the unemployment rate either does not exceed or slightly exceeds the national average of 5.8%. In a significant part of Russia, unemployment reaches 6-8% of the economically active population, the average value is 7% (Fig. 2).
Rice. 2. Unemployment map in Russia, according to Rosstat
Another reason for such regional differences in unemployment (the unemployment rate in Moscow is 18.7 times lower than in Ingushetia) is the weak regional development and distribution of finances, most of which goes to the federal budget. As a result, the regions do not have sufficient funds to invest in infrastructure development and create new jobs. This is especially true for republics North Caucasus with a high proportion of young people in the population structure (from 20.7 to 34.8% of the population below working age), who will soon need jobs. And also for the regions of Siberia and the Far East due to the high remoteness and insufficient development of communications between these regions and the Central economic region Russia. Due to these factors, the regional economies are developing at an extremely low rate. Added to this is the presence in the neighborhood of countries with fairly cheap labor and developed production of finished products, which leads to raw materials specialization of the regions.
One of the reasons for the regional imbalance in the unemployment rate is the economic specialization of the regions. In connection with the policy of deindustrialization, which has been carried out in Russia since the early 1990s, and the deterioration of the situation in agriculture due to the focus on building a post-industrial economy, the worst employment situation is observed in regions specializing mainly in agriculture and manufacturing with a simultaneous low share of the service sector in the structure of the economy.
Unemployment can not only be clearly recorded. There is also the so-called hidden unemployment - those who are not registered as unemployed, or those who have not been fired, are formally employed, but are not able to work at full capacity. For example, he is on unpaid leave or works part-time.
Are there ways to estimate unemployment, including hidden unemployment? Yes, I have. Unemployment can be indirectly assessed using:
1. The ratio of the number of resumes to the number of vacancies, as well as the dynamics of the number of resumes;
2. Search engine queries;
3. Sociological surveys of the population;
4. Statistics on company bankruptcy.
FOR SEARCHING JOBS ON SPECIALIZED SITES
The HeadHunter portal has the largest amount of data.
Since January 2008, the HeadHunter portal has been publishing data on the number of resumes and vacancies, as well as their ratio, which is called the hh index. It represents the ratio of the number of resumes submitted to the number of vacancies created.
As of April 15, 2015, it is equal to 2.46 p., which is 1 p. lower than the maximum value for 2008-2009, recorded on February 26, 2009, and on March 2, 2015, the maximum was recorded since the end of February 2010 year value of 2.6 p.
How did this index show the crisis of 2008-2009?
In 2009, there was a sharp rise in this index and the number of resumes submitted, reaching a peak in June. At the same time, the number of vacancies fell sharply from 39.6 thousand at the end of 2008 to 16 thousand in March 2009, with a steady increase in the number of resumes. The number of resumes in general during the entire period of monitoring the portal always exceeded the number of vacancies, that is, the state of lack of jobs is already constant for Russia.
But if we take the absolute value, the number by which the number of resumes exceeds the number of vacancies in mid-April 2009 was 57.3 thousand, and as of April 15, 2015 - 207 thousand. The ratio of the number of resumes and the number of vacancies is changing, although not much - but the scale has changed quite seriously, and the absolute number of unemployed, and, consequently, their share of the total economically active population should also change quite a bit. Of course, this may also be due to the fact that in 2008 the portal was just beginning its activities.
In the crisis April 2009, when the number of unemployed in Russia, according to Rosstat, was significantly higher than in April 2015, and all of them were actively looking for work, the number of resumes exceeded the number of vacancies by 39.7 thousand. Then it would be logical to assume that the excess of the number of resumes in April 2015 by 122.9 thousand should be associated either with an increase in the number of economically active population (hence the size of the population itself) or with hidden unemployment.
However, in general, according to the HeadHunter portal, the number of resumes has been constantly growing. Can we say that this is due to an increase in the number of economically active population?
As can be seen from the graph in Fig. 3, the number of economically active population changed slightly and generally remained at the same level, while the number of people looking for work continued to grow.
Rice. 3. Change in the number of economically active population (according to Rosstat) and the number of submitted resumes (data from the HeadHunter portal)
Of course, this may be due not only to the loss of a job as such, but also to the search for a second or even a third job.
It would be logical to assume that the higher (or lower) unemployment is, the more (or fewer) resumes are submitted to job search sites (Fig. 4).
Rice. 4. Changes in the unemployment rate (Rosstat) and the number of submitted resumes (hh.ru)
However, the Pearson coefficient for the official unemployment rate and the number of resumes submitted is 0.6, that is, the relationship between the number of resumes and unemployment is average.
Official statistics give very calming unemployment figures, which, however, generally reflect the dynamics of the unemployment rate. Maybe the HeadHunter index and unemployment statistics are even less closely related than the number of resumes and the unemployment rate?
If you look at changes in the HeadHunter index and the unemployment rate over the past year by month (Fig. 5), you will notice that the dynamics of both indicators are similar. The Pearson correlation coefficient for these indicators is 0.92, which proves that the HeadHunter Index and unemployment statistics data have high degree correlations, that is, the HeadHunter index reflects processes occurring in the employment sector
Rice. 5. Changes in the unemployment rate (Rosstat) and the ratio of submitted resumes to the number of vacancies (hh.ru)
Despite the fact that Rosstat data shows only a slight increase in unemployment at the beginning of 2015, the HeadHunter index began to rise in July 2014 and increased sharply at the beginning of 2015.
Considering that the correlation coefficient between the index and the unemployment rate shows a very strong positive relationship and is equal to 0.86, it is possible to calculate the unemployment rate through the NN index. Normally, the unemployment rate given by Rosstat and the unemployment rate according to the NN index should coincide or differ slightly.
If we take the January 2010 indicators as a starting point, and assume that the HeadHunter index and the unemployment rate at that time most reflected reality, then it is possible to calculate the unemployment rate using the HeadHunter index.
Having determined the coefficient, it is possible to calculate the unemployment rate. If official data reflects reality, the unemployment rate calculated using the HeadHunter index will be equal to or slightly differ from official data.
The starting point was January 2009, when the unemployment rate was 8.7% and the HeadHunter index was 2.42 points.
We find that the similarity coefficient k is equal to 1.29552, and the coefficient b is equal to 2.93891. This results in the following graph.
Rice. 6. Calculation of unemployment using the HeadHunter index
As of July 1, 2015, according to these calculations, the number of unemployed is 4.65 million people or 6.12%. According to official statistics, the unemployment rate is lower (5.4%), which means an increase in hidden unemployment.
The overall dynamics show that from 2010 until July 2013, unemployment gradually decreased, but then began to rise, which is likely due to one of the peak values of the official liquidation rate of organizations, which is discussed below.
Some doubts in the calculations may be due to the fact that Rosstat data until October 2011 were higher than the unemployment rate calculated using the HeadHunter index. However, this may be due to the following factors.
1. Until 2011, the bank of resumes and vacancies on the portal had not yet acquired sufficient coverage to reflect the situation on the labor market as a whole.
2. Searching for a job using the Internet has not yet become popular enough. According to the same Rosstat, in October 2011, 59.6% of the unemployed preferred to look for work through friends, relatives and acquaintances, 32.1% turned to state employment services, and only 8.3% used other methods of finding work.
SEARCH QUESTIONS
Yandex statistics for searches with the word “vacancy” also do not show a very good picture. The absolute number of search queries from March 2013 to April 2015 increased by 94.2%, reaching a maximum in the last two years. Unfortunately, it is not possible to compare the number of search queries with an earlier period due to the lack of such data.
According to Rosstat, in March 2013 the unemployment rate was 5.7%, that is, 0.1% less than in April 2015. At the same time, for some unknown reason, Russians now really needed work, which they began to look for on the Internet (Fig. 7).
Rice. 7. Dynamics of the unemployment rate (according to Rosstat) and the number of search queries in the Yandex system for the word “vacancy”
If we take as a fact 5.7% of the unemployed in March 2013, and assume that unemployment is growing in accordance with the number of requests on the Internet (i.e., in June 2015 it increased 1.53 times, as did the number of requests), then it should would have grown by 3%, to 8.76%, but according to official data it increased only by 0.1%.
The correlation coefficient between official Rosstat data and the number of requests on the network shows an average positive relationship (equal to 0.52). If we calculate the unemployment rate based on the fact that the number of requests on the network and the unemployment rate change equally, we get the following graph.
Rice. 8. Unemployment rate for search queries in Yandex
If we take the average value of the unemployment rate according to search queries and the HeadHunter index, we can observe that the unemployment rate began to rise since July last year, and on average in July 2015 it was 7.57%, or 5.75 million people in need at work.
Rice. 9. Dynamics of the unemployment rate, according to calculations based on search queries and the HeadHunter index
It is worth noting that out of the total number of search queries for the word “vacancy”, permanent jobs are sought much less frequently, which suggests an increase in hidden unemployment.
However, the number of online requests for the phrase “vacancy + permanent job” has increased 4.26 times over the past two years (since May 2013) (Fig. 10).
Rice. 10. Dynamics of search queries in the Yandex system for the phrase “vacancy + permanent job”
It is curious that there were two surges of such requests: in October 2014 and in March 2015. A similar situation was observed with the unemployment rate in 2008-2009: an “October” surge in 2008 during the crisis, which later repeated itself in March 2009.
Finding a job using the media and the Internet is the second most popular among the population. The first is an appeal to relatives, friends and acquaintances, who will be the first to learn about the loss of a job. Therefore, data from sociological surveys will show both the situation with unemployment and the expectations of the population, which is important - a person who feels threatened by dismissal will try to find a job.
SOCIOLOGICAL SURVEYS
In February 2015, FOM conducted monitoring in the field of employment. In general, 31% of respondents noted cases of job loss among their relatives, friends and acquaintances, 27% of respondents noted layoffs at their enterprises. 39% of respondents reported the possibility of dismissal, although in October 2008 this figure was 21%.
19% of respondents noted hidden unemployment at their enterprise (unpaid leave, part-time/week), 21% - among relatives, acquaintances and friends.
The survey involved 1,500 respondents aged 18 and older in 43 regions of Russia, 71% of whom admitted that a crisis exists in Russia - even though officials in the media sometimes try to refute this thesis. Of the respondents, 56%, or 840 people, were employed. The statistical error did not exceed 3.6%.
Thus, about 27.4-34.6% of the population noted cases of job loss among their relatives, acquaintances and friends, 23.4 - 31.6% of working Russians (approximately 16.7-22.6 million people) noticed reductions in their enterprises.
Can we say that the survey, conducted in 43 of 85 Russian regions, covering working people and 1,500 people in general, fully reflects the situation with unemployment? No, but even with such a random sample of 100 cities and villages with official statistics, differences are visible.
Interestingly, three months later, in June 2015, the next FOM monitoring in the field of employment showed the following results. The number of those who noticed layoffs and job losses among acquaintances, friends and relatives increased from 31% to 39%, which was a record since October 2008. The number of those who noted hidden unemployment among their friends, relatives and acquaintances also increased, also showing a record 29% of respondents.
Russians began to look more skeptically at the possibility of reducing staff at their enterprises, and, again, the result was record-breaking. If in 2008 61% believed that there was no such probability, then in June 2015 41% remained, while the number of those confident in their own dismissal doubled (from 7 to 14%). At the same time, they admit such a probability, although low, almost 2.3 times more often (32% instead of 14% in 2008).
If, according to Rosstat, 4.4 million people are unemployed, then most of the former colleagues of those surveyed were able to immediately find a job, however, as one can judge from data from job search portals, the number of resumes significantly exceeds the number of vacancies, and search queries continue to increase. It follows from this that organizations experience a fairly rapid turnover of personnel.
Particularly interesting is the fact that, compared to the crisis year of 2008, the situation with layoffs has worsened large quantity respondents, while official statistics state the opposite: according to them, in 2008-2009 the unemployment rate was higher than now. The real state of affairs that people notice in their lives and surroundings and official data that contradict personal observations would seem to lead to extreme social tension and the spread of anxious sentiments.
An interesting survey was conducted by the research center of the SuperJob portal regarding optimistic Russians. The situation with an optimistic mood in 2014 is reminiscent of the predominance of optimism during the crisis of 2008-2009, but has a significant difference. The general trend of Russians’ sentiments in 2009 gradually changed towards worsening expectations, and in 2014 the predominance of positive expectations increased sharply, despite the fact that a year earlier more than half of those surveyed were skeptical about the future (Fig. 11).
Rice. 11. “In your opinion, life in our country will change in the next 5 years...”, data in %, survey conducted at the end of 2014, portal data
Super Job
At the same time, the majority of the population still notes a deterioration in the situation over the past five years, although a tendency towards a decrease in skeptical Russians appeared in the same 2014.
Rice. 12. “In your opinion, life in our country has changed over the past 5 years...”, data in %, survey conducted at the end of the year, data from the SuperJob portal
It can be assumed that this situation in public sentiment is caused by individual events and is artificially maintained due to the need to prepare Russians for crisis conditions of existence.
An interesting survey was conducted in February 2015 by the Polish recruiting company WorkService. The survey was conducted among 1,000 managers of Russian companies, of which 21% announced staff reductions at their enterprises. Thus, reductions were carried out at almost every fifth enterprise in Russia, which could not but cause an increase in unemployment. Another 14.6% of respondents said they had cut employees’ salaries.
A reduction in wages is also one of the factors forcing people to look for another or additional job.
STATE OF ORGANIZATIONS AND ENTERPRISES
During the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the number of indebted businesses increased sharply, leading to mass bankruptcy, which played a role in the surge in unemployment in 2009.
In 2014, few topics received attention in the news flow. However, the massive bankruptcy of travel companies clearly did not apply to them.
According to the Unified Federal Register of Bankruptcy Information, compared to the first quarter of 2014, the number of bankruptcies in 2015 increased by 22%. It is worth noting that at the end of 2014, the number of bankruptcies increased by 20% compared to 2013. In total, 3,765 enterprises went bankrupt in the first three months of the new year.
The number of enterprises that received a net loss, according to Rosstat, for the first time since 2009 reached 28.2% of the total number of organizations, which, on the one hand, may be due to enterprises going into the “shadow” and tax evasion, and on the other hand the other - with severe consequences of sanctions and a drop in production. The latter is confirmed by the industrial production index, which in January-April 2015 compared to the same period in 2014 fell by 1.5%. In April 2015, compared to March, the industrial production index fell by 6.5%.
The fall in industrial production and unprofitability of enterprises also leads to an increase in hidden unemployment.
Another indirect evidence of the difficult situation at enterprises is the arrears of wages, which have increased significantly since the beginning of the year. Most debt is debt due to a lack of own funds of enterprises (Fig. 13).
Rice. 13. Changes in the amount of overdue wages for employees, Rosstat data
The lack of own funds forces the employer to save on employees - and this is reflected not only in overdue wages, but also in specific solutions leaders, which lead to an increase in either obvious or hidden unemployment.
A curious situation is developing in the field of organizational demography. Thus, according to Rosstat, the birth rate of organizations in 2008-2010 significantly exceeded the rate of official liquidation of organizations, while in September 2014 the rate of official liquidation of organizations reached its peak since 2005 (Fig. 14).
Rice. 14. Dynamics of birth rates and official liquidation of organizations, Rosstat data
The coefficient of official liquidation of organizations is calculated as the ratio of the number of officially liquidated organizations during the reporting period to the average number of organizations registered by the authorities state statistics in the Statistical Register for the reporting period, normalized per 1000 organizations. The birth rate of organizations is calculated in a similar way, with the only difference being that registered enterprises are taken into account, not liquidated ones.
You can see that the first “spike” in the liquidation of organizations, which “overwhelmed” the birth rate of organizations, occurred at the end of 2011, after which it was regularly repeated (Fig. 15).
Rice. 15. Change in the coefficient of official liquidation of organizations by month, Rosstat data
In 2011, there was a sharp increase in social payment rates from 26 to 34%. Immediately there was a first “spike” in the liquidation of organizations, which, however, did not exceed the birth rate. But by the end of the year, with a time lag of 8-9 months, the next surge occurred, which already exceeded the value of the birth rate of organizations.
Subsequently, by the beginning of 2012, changes were made to reduce rates to 30%. But with this reduction in rates to 30%, the circle of insured workers has expanded, and the list of categories of employers entitled to a reduced rate has also changed. Pharmacies and social non-profit organizations, transferred to the Unified Tax on Imputed Income, were added to the beneficiaries. However, compared to 2010, tariffs increased, and this was reflected in the liquidation of organizations (Fig. 16).
Rice. 16. Changes in the tariff rate and the coefficient of official liquidation of organizations.
This situation with the liquidation of organizations may indicate that if in 2008-2009 unemployment probably increased due to massive layoffs at enterprises (while the enterprises themselves remained and potentially jobs remained), then in 2014-2015 unemployment increased caused by the liquidation of enterprises. Moreover, the general trends of the coefficients show that over the past 10 years the situation has changed precisely in the direction of exceeding the coefficient of official liquidation of organizations. This situation is much worse in its consequences than just a massive layoff, due to the fact that jobs are eliminated along with the organization.
However, as shown earlier, the unemployment rate of the last crisis has not yet been reached, but it is also impossible to say about a serious decrease in unemployment.
Self-employment of the population, which refers to private entrepreneurship, also plays a significant role in increasing or decreasing the unemployment rate.
Quantity statistics individual entrepreneurs in Russia shows an increase in the number of registered individual entrepreneurs, but there is a strange thing: there are more individual entrepreneurs, but there are fewer people employed in this area (Fig. 17).
Rice. 17. Dynamics of the number of people employed in the field of individual entrepreneurs and the number of registered individual entrepreneurs by year. * - number of individual entrepreneurs registered since January 1, 2015. until 1.06.15
This situation can be explained by two factors: firstly, the scale of the individual entrepreneur may change. Individual entrepreneurs from small enterprises are moving to the microenterprise zone with a minimum number of necessary jobs. And secondly, as can be seen from the graph, the number of liquidated individual enterprises is increasing every year. And even those jobs that exist are being eliminated.
As you can see, the number of individual entrepreneurs who ceased their activities remained in approximately the same proportion as the number of registered individual entrepreneurs for 4 years. However, in 2009, the number of individual entrepreneurs that ceased their activities exceeded the number of registered individual entrepreneurs, which may be due to a change in the ruling elite and increased liberalization of the Russian economy. Consequently, greatest influence It was acquired by representatives of large businesses, who began to lobby for their interests. In addition, another wave of privatization began according to the plan that is still being implemented.
"INFORMAL SECTOR"
Official statistics provide such an indicator as employment in the informal sector. Enterprises in the informal sector of the economy, according to Rosstat, are those enterprises that are not registered as a legal entity. As a rule, these include enterprises in the shadow economy.
The number of people employed in the informal sector is growing every year. Since 2001, the number of people employed in the informal sector has increased by 7.2% (Figure 18).
Rice. 18. Dynamics of the number of people employed in the informal sector of the economy, as a percentage of the total employed population, according to Rosstat
At the same time, the number of people employed in the informal sector with higher education, primary vocational and secondary general education is growing (Fig. 19). Which shows, firstly, the lack of jobs in the “formal” sector, and secondly, the insufficiency of one job to maintain a decent standard of living.
Rice. 19. Changes in the structure of those employed in the informal sector of the economy by level of education, Rosstat data
However, such a change in the level of education among those employed in this sector of the economy may also be due to the fact that an increasing number of people have higher and secondary vocational education. According to statistics, from 2002 to 2010 the number of people with higher education increased by 1.42 times, those with secondary vocational education - by 1.11 times. At the same time, as shown below, many specialists are forced to work outside their specialty due to lack of demand in the market or due to an insufficient number of jobs.
EMPLOYMENT OF YOUNG SPECIALISTS
Difficulties in finding work for university graduates with no experience have already become the talk of the town, and yet it is the lack of a system and regulation of the employment of university graduates that is one of the factors of youth unemployment - one of the most explosive in its possible social consequences.
For those graduates who completed their studies in government-funded places, job assignments are provided (Fig. 20).
Rice. 20. The number of graduates who received and did not receive a job placement from the total number of graduates who studied on a budgetary basis, EMISS data
However, every year the number of budget places in universities out of the total number of places is reduced, so if you look at what percentage of graduates are sent to work out of the total number of graduates, the picture will be more dramatic (Fig. 21).
Rice. 21. The number of graduates who received and did not receive a job assignment out of the total number of university graduates. * - other categories of graduates include unemployed graduates studying at the next level of education, those who independently got a job, self-employed graduates who studied at state-funded places in universities.
As you can see in the diagram, in 2014, only 12.2% of specialists with higher education received a job assignment, and their number has decreased by 3% since 2006.
The increase in the number of job referrals in 2006 relative to 2005 is associated with the implementation of the education reform, according to which the state began to subsidize training in some specialties for those who could not get into a budget place through a competition with mandatory work in the specialty or subsequent reimbursement to the state of the funds spent on the student . However, only those who study in priority areas of training are eligible for these subsidies.
The number of people working in their specialty is indicative. The value of this indicator lies in the fact that it demonstrates an approach to educational policy in the state, which causes an oversupply of some specialists while there is a shortage of others. As can be seen from the diagram in Fig. 22, the worst situation is for those who received higher education in specialties in the field of forestry, agriculture and fisheries, as well as in the service sector, instrument engineering and optics, specialties in the field of social sciences.
Rice. 22. The ratio of those working in their specialty and not in their specialty among those who received higher education in Russia in 2013, according to Rosstat
On average, 30.64% of those who received higher professional education work outside their specialty.
Nowadays it is often said that specialists with secondary specialized education are more in demand on the labor market, however, their employment situation in their specialty is no better than that of those with higher education (Fig. 23).
Rice. 23. The ratio of those working in their specialty and not in their specialty among those who received secondary vocational education in Russia in 2013, according to Rosstat
As you can see, in the case of specialists with secondary specialized education, the least in demand are specialists in the fields of forestry, agriculture and fisheries, instrument making and optics. To this are added specialties in the field of geodesy and land management, natural sciences, chemical and biotechnology, automation and control. On average, 53% of specialists with secondary vocational education work in their specialty, and almost 47% work outside their specialty.
If we take the average value for the specialties that coincide in secondary and higher vocational education, then the worst employment situation is for specialists in the field of forestry, instrument making and optics, agriculture and fisheries, specialists in the field of natural sciences, chemical and biotechnology. On average, more than half of the specialists in these fields work outside their specialty.
The best situation is for specialists in the field of healthcare - only 8.55% of specialists work outside their specialty, which is not least due to the peculiarities of medical education (Fig. 24).
Rice. 24. The ratio of those working in their specialty and not in their specialty among those with secondary specialized and higher education
The situation with specialists with primary vocational education is not the best (Fig. 25).
Rice. 25. The ratio of those working in their specialty and not in their specialty among those who received primary vocational education in Russia in 2013, according to Rosstat
Primary vocational education in Russia is currently not experiencing the best better times. However, among those who received it, most of them work outside their specialty in the field of forestry, agriculture and fisheries, which is a common feature for all specialists, regardless of the education received. This situation is related to the situation in agriculture and the forestry industry: the increasing raw materials orientation of the Russian economy, coupled with the expectation of foreign investment, over-openness of the market lead to the decline of the real sector, and first of all, agriculture and fisheries as the most difficult for development in Russian conditions.
On average, the main job is not related to the specialty acquired by 38% of Russians who received primary vocational, secondary vocational or higher vocational education. The inability to find a job in one's specialty can also be a cause of unemployment, especially among young professionals.
CRISIS OF 2008-2009 AND CRISIS OF 2014-2015
The main reasons for the crisis of 2008-2009, as now, are cited by officials as falling oil prices and excessive lending to domestic companies abroad, although in fact the main reason is the lack of sovereignty of the Russian economy and high dependence on imports.
The fall in oil prices in 2008 was sharper than in 2014, but compared to 2008, the economic contribution of the primary sectors of the economy to the country's GDP increased significantly, which made the country more dependent on fluctuations in oil prices. As then, dependence on external factors led to a crisis state of the economy.
Another event is also very similar to what happened in 2014 - in August 2008, a five-day war took place, where Russia, as in the case of Ukraine, was called the aggressor. In 2008, there was also a deterioration in relations with the West, but then the geopolitical changes that occurred were not as serious as in 2014 after the transition of Crimea to Russia and the introduction of sanctions against the Russian Federation from other countries, as well as Russian sanctions, duplicating and aggravating economic problems of Russia.
Added to this were the systemic crisis of the Russian economy and the policy of the Central Bank of Russia, which led to a significantly greater devaluation of the ruble than during the crisis of 2008-2009. This means that the country's population has become even more impoverished, the well-being of Russians has become more dependent on external manipulated factors, as well as the economic behavior of their employers. The desire to reduce production costs, including through wage cuts, and double-digit inflation will lead to the fact that the employee will need to look for additional sources income.
At the same time, although the official unemployment rate in Russia has increased, it is not as sharp as during the crisis of 2008-2009 (Fig. 15).
Rice. 26. Changes in the unemployment rate during the crisis of 2008-2009 and in 2014-2015, according to Rosstat
The upward change in the unemployment rate in both 2008-2009 and 2014 was observed after a gradual decrease in the unemployment rate and reached peak values at the beginning of the year due to the overlap of seasonal unemployment with the crisis situation.
Differences in growth rates may be associated both with certain management decisions - in particular, with the introduction of programs to combat unemployment - and with the growth of hidden unemployment, which is not reflected in Rosstat statistics reports.
The second option is much more likely, which is due, firstly, to a certain time lag between the beginning of the implementation of management decisions and the effect of them. Moreover, the basis of the entire set of measures to combat unemployment in Russia, in fact, is professional retraining, which in itself takes time and does not guarantee immediate employment.
And secondly, as shown above, despite the almost unchanged indicators of official statistics, activity on the Internet for job searches and an increase in the number of people who noticed layoffs, according to sociological surveys, indicate a lack of work for the population.
In addition, in Russia there are also unfavorable processes in the field of demography of organizations, bankruptcies and wage arrears of organizations, which is associated with the losses incurred by organizations. All these factors generally influence the increase in unemployment precisely due to hidden unemployment.
“UNEMPLOYMENT IN RUSSIA IS LOWER THAN IN EUROPE”
Often enough Russian politicians As an achievement, they say that in Russia the unemployment rate is significantly lower than the average for Europe and Western countries.
If we compare the figures of official statistics, this is indeed the case, with the exception of only a few countries (Fig. 27).
Rice. 27. Unemployment rate in Russia (according to Rosstat), some European countries, Japan and the USA (Eurostat data) from December 2014 to March 2015
However, when calculating the unemployment rate in European countries, hidden unemployment is also taken into account - unlike Russia and the USA. In addition, there are differences in the causes of unemployment.
Firstly, European unemployment benefits are much higher than similar assistance to the unemployed in Russia, as a result of which the unemployed are not so highly motivated to find work as quickly as possible.
Secondly, getting a job can be quite problematic. This is the other side of the coin for protecting the rights of workers, whom it is not as easy for an employer to fire as in Russia - but the employee also has to work hard to find a job in order to receive guarantees.
Third, the duration of unemployment due to the first two points increases and employment opportunities deteriorate.
Fifthly, the higher level of unemployment in Europe as a whole is associated with high unemployment rates in some crisis countries, essentially driven into a debt hole, which create a generally high level of unemployment.
In Russia there are three main reasons: layoffs, hidden unemployment, and lack of jobs. These are fundamentally different reasons than in Europe.
There are enough jobs in Europe, but there are not enough skilled workers.
In Russia, the conditions for doing business and existing organizations, with the exception of large corporations and government projects, are so unfavorable that employers often have to save money.
Labor conditions and remuneration also do not always meet expectations and opportunities ordinary people and citizens. Essentially, Russian workers are deprived of guarantees of the fulfillment of their rights, and moreover, they encounter obstacles if they wish to demand their implementation, as in the case of a complex procedure for holding a strike.
As for the United States, indeed, the overall unemployment rate with Russia is approximately the same. If we also take into account hidden unemployment, the unemployment rate in the United States will be higher. This is due, in particular, to the transfer of many industries to countries with cheap labor and the consequences of the financial crisis. However, the problem of a reduction in the number of jobs due to bankruptcies of companies and the deteriorating economic situation in the United States is solved by creating new jobs, as reported by the President.
RESULT
At the beginning of May 2015, the head of the Ministry of Economy A. Ulyukaev proposed stopping funding for programs to combat unemployment due to the fact that the real unemployment rates turned out to be less serious than expected. However, the main wave of unemployment does not begin immediately, but some time after the start of the crisis.
During the 2008-2009 crisis, the first information about layoffs appeared in the media in October 2008, but the main wave of unemployment was observed later, in January-April 2009. Thus, the main wave of unemployment was delayed in time by about 7-8 months.
The change in unemployment rates in 2014 and early 2015 is very similar to the dynamics of the unemployment rate in 2008-2009, but lower in absolute values. Based on the calculated data on the HeadHunter index, in March 2009, 6.37 million people were unemployed, and in March 2015, 5.99 million people. Of great importance for unemployment indicators is the fact that in St. Petersburg and Moscow the unemployment rate is extremely low against the backdrop of a large population. If we calculate the unemployment rate without taking into account Moscow and St. Petersburg, then in Russia as a whole in April 2015 it will be equal to 6%.
In addition, hidden unemployment plays a significant role in unemployment in 2014-2015.
Based on data obtained using the HeadHunter portal index, the difference between the peak unemployment rate in February 2009 and the peak in February 2015 was 0.57%, and not 3.6%, as given by Rosstat. In addition, Rosstat data for statistical comparability does not take into account data for the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, which, however, are already the territory of the Russian Federation. The unemployment rate in Crimea in the first quarter of 2015 was 9%, in Sevastopol - 12.3%, in total, 106.7 thousand people are considered unemployed on the peninsula.
In Russia, the unemployment rate varies greatly regionally, which, if current regional policies continue, could lead to serious negative consequences, especially in the regions of the North Caucasus and the Far East.
The number of jobs being created, which the media highlights as a great achievement, is woefully insufficient. For example, for the Far East, where, according to EMISS data, 224.2 thousand people are unemployed, the creation of about 40 thousand jobs will not be able to solve the problem.
In addition, the type of unemployment has changed. Unemployment in 2014-2015 is growing mainly due to hidden unemployment, in contrast to unemployment during the 2008-2009 crisis. The difficulty in registering this type of unemployment leads to the virtual impossibility of adequately assessing the processes taking place in the economy, and also makes it possible to use low indicators for political purposes, which reinforces positive social sentiment.
The measures to combat unemployment, which are being implemented by the state, are clearly insufficient and ineffective, they fight exclusively against obvious unemployment, without taking into account the need to combat hidden unemployment, as evidenced by the activity of searching for work on the Internet.
In addition, in conditions of budget deficits and systemic problems caused by the development model itself, the creation of new jobs is extremely problematic. For this purpose, it is planned to attract foreign investment, however, due to foreign policy events and the worsening attitude towards Russia in the world, only Asian countries can become sources of foreign investment. Russia finds itself backed into a corner, and there is little hope that Asian investors will not take advantage of the current situation for their own purposes by putting forward conditions for attracting their own labor force.
The current employment situation will worsen in the future, based on the experience of 2008-2009. The growth of hidden unemployment is especially difficult due to the fact that it is practically not recorded. Together with the not very favorable situation in the field of demography of organizations, the state of employment will mainly affect the well-being and standard of living of citizens, which, together with the processes taking place in the social sphere, may subsequently become a trigger for destructive processes, especially in the regions.
Even so, the unemployment rate in Russia is not yet as high as once predicted. However, the labor market faces a number of structural weaknesses, such as rising youth unemployment.
Statistics
It’s scary, although these indicators have not yet exceeded the critical norm. entered Rosstat in August 2017. According to official data, the working population was 78 million, and the unemployed were at least 3.8 million. Compared to previous years, the overall rate fell below 5%. But let's find out how critical these are and when it's time to start sounding the alarm.
Unemployment in a country is measured by using an index calculated by dividing the number of unemployed people by the total labor force in the country, and then multiplying this figure by 100. Typically, the labor force consists of people who are young enough and suitable for any job, including physical.
The unemployment rate in Russia is an important economic factor. However, there is still debate about what causes this problem. But economists are sure of one thing - unemployment, as a rule, appears in bad times for a country, that is, during a recession (decrease or slowdown in the rate of economic growth) and crisis.
Problem in the country
On other important points, Russia's inflation has been declining for several years now, while real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product is still growing after a sharp decline in 2009.
Like most other countries, Russia's economy is focused mainly on services and various industries, while the agricultural sector plays virtually no role, especially when it comes to the next generation's gross domestic product. Consequently, the vast majority of the workforce is concentrated in the two sectors mentioned above. But Russia is still one of the top wheat exporters around the world, ranking third after the United States and Canada.
Comparison with previous years: rise and fall
Unemployment in Russia is a problem that drags on from year to year. If we take statistics for the last 10 years, the country has not yet escaped the 5% limit. At the same time, the crisis moment came in 2009, when the index was equal to 8.3%. For more accurate clarity, we suggest you study the table, which shows brief unemployment statistics in Russia by year:
Terminology
An unemployed person is someone who is not working and, as a rule, is actively looking for a job. When calculating the index, people who are retired, those who have disabilities, are on maternity leave or are studying in any institution or have not reached a certain age are not taken into account.
Cause
Unemployment in Russia should not surprise anyone, because almost all countries in the world are faced with this problem. For example, in Turkmenistan the index reaches 70%, in Nepal - 46%, in Kenya - 42%, even in Greece and Spain this figure varies from 27% to 28%. Let's find out the main reasons for unemployment in Russia:
- People leave their previous place of work to find a better paying, more convenient one.
- People were laid off and now cannot recover.
- The company has reduced its workforce. This may be due to the fact that the country's economic growth is slowing down and most goods or services are not in demand.
- Went on maternity leave, entered educational institution, have not reached working age.
- The person's position was distributed to other employees.
- Too many people. This factor plays a big role, especially in small towns where there is much more demand than supply.
- Low wages, difficult working conditions.
- Scientific and technological progress, where human power is replaced by robots and machines.
- There are not enough jobs, both in individual regions and throughout the country as a whole.
Data
In the period from the end of summer to the beginning of autumn 2014, when the economic crisis in Russia was just beginning to develop, oil prices began to fall rapidly, the ruble followed them, and inflation began to rise. It is not surprising that many experts predicted that the Russian population would inevitably face the serious scourge of mass unemployment.
The logic of such forecasts was clear - the country was suffering from a severe economic recession, which had an impact on almost all sectors of the economy. The state clearly did not have enough resources, as in 2008-2009 during the previous financial crisis, to ensure large-scale investment in all areas affected by the crisis.
Today, almost four years after the crisis began, the skeptics' predictions have not come true. Under these conditions, it seemed that the natural response of troubled industries would be to layoffs en masse in order to cut costs and save money. But neither in 2015, nor in 2016, nor in 2017 did this happen. According to statistics, unemployment in Russia has never been so global problem, like in 2009. Over the years, the index has almost never exceeded a very modest figure of 6%. And (compared to world statistics) this indicator is worthy of praise.
Let's give an example. The unemployment rate reached almost 10% in the US (during peak years). The average unemployment rate in the EU is currently below 10%, which is considered a success since almost 8 years ago the index exceeded 12%. At the height of the economic crisis in countries such as Spain, Greece, and Italy, this figure reached 40%. But there is still cause for concern. Already today, in these countries, approximately every fifth person is unemployed. How did Russia manage to avoid such a fate?
How Russia is different
According to Tatyana Maleva, director of the Institute social analysis and forecasting under the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA), since the 1990s, Russia has been developing its own model of the labor market, which differs from the Western one.
While in most countries of the world companies reduce production and staff numbers in times of economic turmoil, in Russia, fearing worsening social tensions, all market participants behave completely differently. Instead of firing ineffective workers, employers prefer to reduce wages. In addition, the Russian labor market resorts to a system of hidden unemployment, in which workers are transferred to shorter weeks, sent on unpaid leave, or their hours and production rates are reduced.
Workers happily accept this system, and all because of the small number of real alternatives - the risk of not finding a new job frightens people even in large cities. The state is also quite satisfied with this behavior of employers and employees, since it ensures that there will never be a large influx of people seeking unemployment benefits in Russia. This could undermine an already weakened budget.
The amount of unemployment benefits in Russia
Currently, the minimum monthly unemployment payment is 850 rubles (about $15 at current exchange rates) for first-time job seekers in the first year after being fired for misconduct, and the maximum is 4,900 rubles (about $85). Obviously, such small amounts are not enough for survival, so they do not provoke people to register as officially unemployed. There are just over three million such people in Russia today.
One big advantage A one-size-fits-all labor market model is that it makes it possible for society to avoid tensions and political upheavals. However, the main disadvantage is that as a result, our country has an economy suffering from sluggish processes. That is, an environment in which everyone has job security, no one has an incentive to fight for jobs.
Lower salary
Today the unemployment rate in Russia is 5.3%, which corresponds to approximately 4 million people. At the same time, real wages fell by almost 10% last year. This is the reason that the country did not experience a sharp increase in unemployment - a decrease in real wages testified to this process.
Employers continue to respond to the crisis in this way. Over the past year, more than 24% of surveyed families confirmed that their wages were cut, 19% of citizens were delayed in payment, and 9% had their working hours reduced, they were forced to go on unpaid leave or were fired.
Temporary employment
Since unemployment in Russia remained virtually unchanged in 2018, people began to look for part-time or temporary employment that would bring in a little more income than assistance from the state. At the end of May 2016, according to the Ministry of Labor, this sector of the labor market grew by 18 percent compared to the same period last year. Overall, the number of part-time workers rose to 41,500 over the past year and now exceeds 300,000. This is not so much for such a large country as Russia, but it is equivalent to the population of a large city.
The most important thing is that the number of temporary workers is growing; a certain trend can be seen here. Yes, employers are trying to avoid mass layoffs, obviously understanding that if this happens at their enterprise, the state will clearly not be happy about it. Especially when it comes to elections, because then no one is interested in the appearance of hotbeds on the map of Russia.
At the same time, the economic crisis is not yet over; GDP continues to decline, although not as sharply as in the period from 2014 to 2016. Most businessmen are still faced with the need to optimize their expenses, including wages. Otherwise, their business simply will not be able to survive. Therefore, decisions are currently being made to transfer workers to various forms of part-time employment. Thus, Russian businesses reduce their costs by resorting to this method.
Finally
the main problem Russia is that our market creates very few new jobs. Its only peculiarity is that it provides a high level of employment and a low level of unemployment due to highly differentiated wages, as well as a significant share of low-wage employment. At the same time, there is a growing demand in the labor market for temporary employment, which requires loaders, laborers, repairmen, drivers, packers, salespeople, cleaners and cooks.
To summarize, we can say that the Russian labor market was able to respond to the challenges of the economic crisis using its own model, in which natural disadvantages were turned into temporary advantages. Reducing wages, transferring people to temporary work, reducing working hours, intensifying internal labor migration, transferring people to remote work - these processes are nothing more than temporary measures. But they allow many people to stay afloat with at least some source of income during difficult economic times.
It's no secret that unemployment in Russia has always been at high level. This is why many are interested in what it was like in 2016 and what percentage it was in relation to the total population.
Statistics show that in 2016, unemployment affected 5.8% of the total population. And although this figure does not seem too large, in practice it is almost 4.5 million people who are registered on the labor exchange and, in fact, are in a poor state. This is 0.2% more than in 2015, but 2.5% less than in 2009, when the country was in distress and the unemployment rate reached 8.3%.
Where to find official unemployment data
If you are not used to believing ordinary statisticians, but prefer official data on the unemployment rate in Russia, then you should visit the website of the FSGS of Russia. Here are several statistical tables, including the following data:
- a table of how much employers need workers (only those organizations that have declared their need to the employment service are taken into account);
- statistics on the number of citizens who are registered with the employment service;
- dynamics of the number of unemployed, divided by the duration of the search for a job;
- employment level of the population in the time period from 15 to 72 years;
- population with economically active status.
On the website you can view unemployment statistics from 2010 to 2016.
Unemployment statistics in Russia at the beginning of 2016
So, as was already said at the very beginning of the article, the unemployment rate at the beginning of 2016 was 5.8% or, if calculated numerically, this is almost 4.5 million people. At the same time, accordingly, the percentage of workers was 94.2%, which is equal to 71.3 million people. But 52% or 75.8 million have the status of economically active population.
As the data shows, least of all not busy people Now living in the capital - their percentage is 1.5%. But the majority of unemployed people are currently in Ingushetia - here the percentage of unemployed is off the charts at 20%.
The data is also such that, starting from the beginning of 2011, when the unemployment rate reached 7.8%, there is a significant downward trend, since at the beginning of 2016 it was 5.8%. However, there is also bad news, as in recent years there has been a slight increase in the level of unemployment - experts attribute this to staff reductions.
As the dynamics graphs show, at the very beginning of 2014, unemployment remained at the same level as at the end of 2013. In addition, in 2014 there was even a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, but in mid-summer the graph went up, which indicates that a large number of people remained unemployed during this period.
Making the right calculations
People often judge how many people are unemployed in our time by the total population, of which there are currently more than 140 million in our country. This is true, but only partly, because when calculating, you should not take into account children, pensioners, disabled people, and so on. The calculation takes into account only the economically active population, which is equal to approximately half of all people in the country. So, what data is given on this matter?
Currently the percentage active population is 52%, which is about 76 million people. If we talk, on the contrary, about the inactive, then the percentage is slightly lower - almost 71 million or the remaining 48%. And this is based on the fact that there are almost 147 million people in the country now, which, accordingly, equals 100%.
Of course, statistical data differs somewhat from reality, which Rosstat also warns Russian citizens about and gives the following explanations:
- Only part of the population is taken into account, and not all citizens living in the country. The official source reports that only a select portion of people are taken into account.
- Also Crimea is not taken into account during calculations, which is also indicated on the website.
- First of all the number of unemployed people is decreasing not by employing unemployed citizens, but due to the fact that the number of economically active population decreases, which was discussed earlier. More to the point in simple language, then there are more young and old people, but, on the contrary, there are fewer people of working age.
The following fact should also be taken into account. Unfortunately, the situation is such that there is simply no information about the employment of many people, or it has become outdated over time (the person quit or, conversely, got a job, but this was not recorded). Data about such people somewhat distort the general statistics of the situation in the country.
What to expect in 2017
As experts predict, the number of people left without work will continue to grow, because the crisis has not yet passed our country, and the Russian government still continues to optimize the budget, due to which many citizens are losing their jobs. It is planned that the number of people without a job this year will reach 7%, which is significantly more than in 2014 and 2015.
Of course, one can never say exactly how high the level will be, because budget optimization is exclusively of a “wave” nature, which means that unemployment will not increase sharply, but gradually. As for the authorities, they advise citizens not to panic and not to make hasty conclusions, because they promise to pay for material benefits at the labor exchange, and this means that no one will be left without a means of living. True, the amount of the benefit is so small that it will be frankly difficult to live on it.
By the way, economists say that not everything is so simple here either. Of the total population, only 10% will be able to find a job without work, which means that the rest of the people will live on benefits, which the state will still have to pay, which will not have the best effect on the country’s economy (and indeed, for such a number of people It will be quite expensive to pay even small benefits).
What does the government say about this
According to Rosstat, this issue looks very pessimistic, because, according to experts, the percentage of unemployed will drop as much as ten. Moreover, it is not yet clear to experts in which specific areas of activity the window will be gaping, however, one thing is clear - the first to suffer will be those citizens who work in the environment of entrepreneurship, services, or are employed in production sectors.
By the way, entrepreneurs will have the worst of it, because they will have to pay increased amounts of taxes from this year, accordingly, their income will seriously drop, and some will have to abandon their business altogether.
There are other data. As experts in this field predict, the least number of unemployed people will be in the center of the country (in St. Petersburg and the capital) - here the situation with a decrease in demand for personnel will be almost unnoticeable. But on the periphery of Russia everything will be much sadder. The data from previous years speaks to the same thing - just look at Ingushetia to understand how bad everything is on the outskirts of the country.
Interesting statistics
By the way, it is at least encouraging that the level of youth unemployment is currently at a low level, because in our time it is much easier for young people to find jobs than for older people. And young people themselves are trying not to sit on government support, but to look for optimally profitable jobs to provide themselves and their loved ones with a comfortable life.
What conclusions can be drawn?
If we summarize all of the above, we can conclude that the forecast for unemployment in 2017 for the country does not sound very positive, as indicated by the opinions of various experts. However, you shouldn’t worry too much about this, since you can always find a place to work and make money, especially if you have the desire and a certain zeal. And in order to find your place in the workforce as quickly as possible, you should definitely register at the labor exchange, because there are many vacancies for those who want to earn money and even training courses. And losing a job, as practice shows, is not always a tragedy - it often allows you to reconsider your values and find a job you like.
How the registration of the unemployed is organized in Russia. Registered unemployment is almost 5 times less than the official one. But the actual fact is not recorded in any way.
Today, unemployment in Russia is a common occurrence. It is clear to anyone what its essence is and who the unemployed are. Already from the name itself it is clear that these are people who do not have a job, but at the same time want to work, are actively looking for work and are ready to start it.
The status of unemployed is determined by the Federal Law “On Employment of the Population in the Russian Federation”. It serves as the main piece of legislation governing issues relating to employment and unemployment. From time to time, changes are made to labor legislation, but the main thing remains unchanged - this status is assigned only by special institutions of employment services after registration and provided that the applicant meets certain criteria:
- reached 16 years of age;
- not older than 72 years of age;
- is not disabled and unable to engage in labor activity;
- is not officially registered anywhere at work (even if there is none);
- did not twice refuse the provided vacancy or retraining, did not appear for re-registration, or received income while registered with the Employment Service.
Even at the dawn of Soviet power, the registration of the unemployed was carried out by the labor exchanges of the young republic. They named several sources of unemployment growth in the period 1927-29:
- Unskilled workers. This reason was considered the main one, primarily because a restriction was established on the registration of persons who had not previously worked for hire, but too many “newcomer village elements” settled in the cities.
- Teenagers. They were poorly involved in production.
- Builders. The 1929 season opened late.
The young government was extremely proud of the fact that in the “historically short time» completely eliminated unemployment, noting that such world history I didn't know yet. By 1930, full employment of the working population was achieved. This is evidenced by the official statistics of that time.
Sources: collections of the Central Statistical Office of the USSR
This is also demonstrated by official publications of those years containing international comparisons.
Unemployed in New Russia
Administrative and economic reforms, perestroika, the collapse of the Union and institutional transformations that literally shook the country in the early 1990s brought back to life a phenomenon that the Soviet Union had not seen in the 60 years since 1930: unemployment. The new Russia fully felt the problem of decaying capitalism. Employment services are operating at full capacity.
As of January 1, 1992, 61,876 people already had unemployed status. In the first six months, their number increased by 3.2 times, in a year - by 9.3 times, and in a year and a half - by 1.6.
Source: Rosstat
The growth in the number of unemployed continued intensively until 1998, until it reached its peak. At the end of 1998, there was a record unemployment rate of 13.3%.
The basis for obtaining this data on the unemployed is labor force surveys, the purpose of which is to collect information on the number and composition of the employed and unemployed, the level of labor force participation, the unemployment rate, as well as their dynamics in the Russian Federation and its constituent entities.
Brief description of the survey
In Russia they began to be held in 1992. Surveys were carried out once a year (as was the case in 1992-94, 1997 and 1998 in the last week of October, in 1996 - in March), twice (as in 1995 - in March and October, also in the last week), quarterly (1999 - August 2009 ), and since September 2009 it has been held monthly in the second week of the month.
Applicable sampling method, and subsequently its results are extended to the entire population of the surveyed age.
The survey covered private households in all Russian regions, and included persons aged 15-72 years. When determining age limits, the following are taken into account:
- 15 years - UN principles and recommendations;
- 72 years old is the fact that people in this age group are in the labor force.
As a rule, up to 70,000 people are surveyed; in each subject of the Federation, the proportion of selection may differ from the average for Russia (this is 0.06% of the population 17-72 years old). The basis for the sample is the materials of the All-Russian population censuses about those who permanently reside in the territory of a particular city, district, settlement.
Those who live in collective living quarters will not be eligible for examination:
- boarding schools;
- nursing homes;
- dormitories;
- monasteries, etc.
Each individual observation unit is assigned an individual weight at the level of the subject of the Federation. Distribution consists of comparing the number of surveyed citizens with the total population of the surveyed age. Moreover, both categories are stratified by gender, five-year age groups and type of settlement.
Persons participating in the survey are interviewed using form No. 1-Z “Labour Force Sample Survey Questionnaire”. It contains information about:
- respondents;
- whether they have a paid job or gainful occupation;
- signs characterizing the main work;
- second job;
- job search;
- past activities of persons not employed in the survey week;
- persons outside the labor force;
- participation of the population in other forms of labor activity
The information contained in the questionnaire allows each respondent to be classified as employed, unemployed or not in the labor force. If the respondent has dual status, priority is given to:
- employment before unemployment;
- unemployment before absence from the labor force.
The unemployed, in accordance with ILO definitions, are persons aged 15-72 years who, during the period under review, simultaneously satisfied the following criteria: did not have a job (gainful occupation); were looking for work during the four weeks preceding the survey week, using any means; were ready to start work during the survey week.
The unemployed also include persons who did not have a job during the period under review, but agreed on a start date for work (within 2 weeks after the survey week) and did not continue to search for it further; did not have a job, were ready to start, but were not looking for work, as they were waiting for a response from the administration or employer to a previously made application. In this case, the waiting period for a response should not exceed one month.
Unemployment today
According to the labor force survey, in Russia at the end of the year there were 4,243 thousand people not employed in the economy, but actively looking for work.
Average age unemployed ranges between 35-36 years.
Moreover, in their total number, the largest share is among young people: 20-24 and 25-29 years old (19.1 and 16.6%, respectively), and the smallest share is among the older generation 60-72 years old (3.1%) .
As the survey showed, more than half of the unemployed in recent years are people with secondary education, vocational and general.
The share of persons with secondary vocational education in 2016 accounted for 40.4%, with secondary general education - 29.8%.
During the survey, respondents also name the main methods of job search that they use. More than half of them turn to acquaintances, relatives and friends. By the end of 2016, their share increased from 57.5 to 68%. The popularity of the media and the Internet in this matter has increased. In 2011, their share accounted for 23.9%; today, almost every second unemployed person takes advantage of the opportunities provided by the global network and print. It should be noted that searches are carried out in several directions simultaneously.
Source: Rosstat
Gender aspect of unemployment
Both men and women are actively looking for work in Russia. At the end of 2016, out of 4,243 unemployed people, 2,268 were men and 1,975 were women.
Source: Rosstat
Moreover, the ratio has remained almost unchanged over the past six years. The share of the male half fluctuates between 53.5-54.5%, while the female half remains within the range of 45.5-46.5%.
The ratio remains similar among different age groups. And only one of them - 55-59 years old - stands out from the general series. Among the unemployed 55-59 years old, 34.1% are women, and 66.3% are men.
The average age of the unemployed changes little - from 35 to 36 years. The examination showed that the unemployed man was slightly older than the woman, he was 36. Although in 2011 they were almost the same age.
If we talk about the education of men and women looking for work, then those with secondary education are more often in search: with professional education this is 41.5% of men and 39.1% of women, and with general education - 30.2% of men and 29.4 % women.
The graph will show how these ratios changed.
Unemployment rate
The unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of unemployed people in a certain age group (15-72 years) to the size of the labor force (economically active population) of the corresponding age group, calculated as a percentage.
The registration of the unemployed in Russia is organized by two different departments: Rosstat - in the form of a survey of the labor force (population on employment issues) and the Ministry of Labor and Employment - by registering citizens' appeals to the Employment Service. According to Rosstat, there were 4,243 thousand unemployed citizens in Russia in 2016, which is 4.7 times more than registered by the Employment Service institutions. And the Minister of Labor and Employment of the Russian Federation M. Topilin says the following about unemployment:
Sources: Rosstat, federal Service labor and employment
The difference in the methods of determining the number of unemployed also affects the unemployment rate.
Unemployment in the world. International comparisons
Among other important economic indicators in Russia and individual foreign countries, Rosstat publishes information on the unemployment rate.